Core view
Market review in 2021: the non-ferrous metal industry performed well in 2021. Shenwan nonferrous metals industry rose 39.6% in 2021, ranking third among Shenwan’s 31 first-class industries. In terms of stages, Shenwan nonferrous metals industry index was in the consolidation state in the first half of 2021, with small overall fluctuation, and increased in the second half of the year, and reached the largest annual increase of 63.8% in September 2021. In terms of molecular industries, most sub industries of the non-ferrous metal industry performed well, and rare metals, new metal materials, energy metals and industrial metals rose better, with increases of 58.6%, 55.4%, 55.0% and 26.0% respectively; Precious metals performed mediocrely, falling 5.7% for the whole year.
Performance outlook in 2021: (1) rare metal sector: the forecast of the annual report shows that most companies in the rare metal sector have achieved growth. At present, there are a total of 26 companies in the rare metal sector, of which 21 companies have issued performance forecasts for 2021. Among the 21 companies that have been announced, 17 are expected to have a year-on-year increase in net profit in 2021, accounting for 81%. (2) New metal materials sector: all companies in the new metal materials sector that have disclosed performance forecasts have achieved growth. In 2021, the price of praseodymium oxide increased by 150.0% year-on-year, and the price of neodymium oxide increased by 81.4% year-on-year. Driven by the rapid rise of metal prices of new materials, the sector is expected to have brilliant performance throughout the year. (3) Energy metal sector: lithium resources company Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) in the sector expects the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 to reach 3119.9%. It is the highest performance growth rate of the current non-ferrous metal sector. Driven by new energy vehicles, the energy metal sector is expected to perform well throughout the year. (4) Industrial metal sector: the prices of major industrial metals have increased, but the increase is different. It is expected that the annual performance of the industrial metal sector will improve as a whole, but different enterprises will be differentiated. (5) Precious metals sector: the price of precious metals fluctuated throughout the year. The price of gold decreased by 5.5% year-on-year and increased by 2.7% month on month in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the annual performance of precious metals sector will be relatively stable.
Outlook for 2022: (1) rare metal sector: the cumulative sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2021 will be 3.521 million. With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles and the continuous promotion of infrastructure projects, the demand for rare metals will continue to grow. (2) New metal materials: the 14th five year plan proposes to promote the high-quality development of the new material industry, and it is expected that the scale of the new material industry will reach 10 trillion in the future. (3) Energy metal sector: under the “double carbon” policy, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has led to a significant increase in the loading volume of power batteries. The loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries has reached 154.5gwh in 2021. It is expected that the energy metal industry will continue to boom in the future. (4) Industrial metal sector: in 2022, the supply of some industrial metals is still uncertain, the mismatch between supply and demand of industrial metals still exists, and the prosperity of the sector is expected to remain high in the future. (5) Precious metals: in the short term, the current market has strong expectations for the Fed’s interest rate hike. In the short term, with the landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the gold price may rebound to some extent. In the medium and long term, the price of Brent crude oil reached US $92.69/barrel on February 7, 2022, an increase of about 17.4% over the beginning of the year. The continuous rise of international oil prices indicates that the current inflation situation has not been eased. At the same time, omecron continues to spread all over the world. The number of new infections in the world on February 7, 2022 is as high as 2189000, and the uncertainty of the global economy in the future remains. The configuration value of precious metal sector at the current time point is constantly highlighting.
Investment advice
Most sub sectors of the nonferrous metals industry performed well in 2021. Under the background of global energy transformation and high inflation, the nonferrous metals sector is expected to continue to be strong in 2022, and relevant enterprises may benefit, such as: Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) .
Risk tips
International geopolitical conflicts intensified, commodity prices fluctuated sharply, and international macroeconomic policies changed
