\u3000\u3000 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) (688276)
The market capacity of non immunization planning vaccines will continue to expand. Due to the lack of public understanding of the role of vaccination and other factors, China’s per capita vaccine expenditure has been at a low level for a long time. Due to the global covid-19 pneumonia epidemic, Chinese residents’ awareness of health protection and immunization has increased significantly. In addition, with the continuous reform of China’s medical approval department, there is a trend to accelerate the reform of medical approval department. It is expected that more innovative vaccines will appear in the future, so as to further promote the improvement of vaccination rate, and the market capacity of non immunization planning vaccines is expected to be further expanded.
The market space of the company’s main product varicella vaccine is expected to be further improved. Varicella vaccine is the main contributor to the company’s current revenue, accounting for nearly 80% of its operating revenue in 2020. ① Compared with developed countries, there is still some room for improvement in the vaccination rate of varicella in China; ② The “two needle method” is gradually popularized, and the market scale is expected to continue to expand.
The company’s freeze-dried nasal spray influenza vaccine has differentiated competitive advantages, and the production of rabies vaccine is expected to resume in 2022. The company is the only manufacturer of live attenuated influenza vaccine in China. Compared with other listed influenza vaccines, the company’s freeze-dried nasal spray influenza vaccine has differentiated competitive advantages. ① Vaccinators have higher compliance, which is conducive to improving the vaccination rate; ② Can induce mucosal immunity; ③ High production efficiency is conducive to dealing with influenza pandemic. In addition, the company expects to complete the transformation of equipment and facilities and process technology of rabies vaccine production line by the end of 2021. After the upgrading, rabies vaccine will contribute to the company’s performance in 2022.
The company is in a leading position in China in the research and development progress of large variety herpes zoster vaccine. At present, there are only two herpes zoster vaccines on the market worldwide, and only shinrix produced by GlaxoSmithKline has been on the market in China. In 2020, GSK’s new recombinant herpes zoster virus vaccine achieved a global sales revenue of US $2.57 billion, the fifth largest vaccine in the world in 2020, and is a heavy vaccine product in the world. Judging from the R & D Progress of Chinese enterprises, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) is currently in phase III clinical, with the fastest progress. The company’s herpes zoster vaccine is expected to be first approved for listing in 2023, bringing incremental performance to the company.
Investment suggestion: the company’s earnings per share in 2021 and 2022 are expected to be 0.76 yuan and 1.31 yuan respectively, and the corresponding valuations are 71 times and 41 times respectively. The company is a first-class vaccine enterprise in China. At present, its core products are chickenpox vaccine, freeze-dried nasal spray influenza vaccine and rabies vaccine. With the resumption of rabies vaccine and herpes zoster vaccine, the company is expected to be the first to be approved for listing in 2023, and the company is expected to enter the next growth cycle. For the first time, the company will be given a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning. The risk of long-term technical iteration, the risk that the clinical progress of the project under research is less than expected, the risk that the product structure is relatively single, etc.
