\u3000\u3000 Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) (603180)
The company’s performance in 2021 exceeded expectations, achieved rapid growth under the high base, and maintained the “buy” rating
The company released the performance express. In 2021, the operating revenue was 3.450 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.70%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 341 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.47%, the net profit not attributable to the parent was 262 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.46%, the Q4 operating revenue in 2021 was 1.231 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.10%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 183 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.87%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 157 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.90%, The performance exceeded expectations and grew rapidly under the high base. The profit forecast for 2021 was raised and remained unchanged from 2022 to 2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 341 / 419 / 524 million yuan (originally 325 / 419 / 524 million yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 2.21/2.71/3.40 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 14.9/12.2/9.7 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Retail business has driven the rapid growth of revenue, and the risk of bulk business under the mode of engineering agent has been controlled
On the revenue side, 2021q4 grew at a high base, mainly driven by retail business. The company accelerated the layout of retail stores. In 2021, the number of Q3 stores totaled 2916, a net increase of 423 compared with the end of 2020. In terms of bulk business, the company strengthened risk control, highlighted the advantages of engineering agent model, and reduced the risk of bulk business. On the profit side, the profit margin in 2021 is under pressure, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the decline in the profitability of bulk business in the second half of 2021. However, we believe that the increase in the contract performance price of the company’s new engineering business in 2022 is expected to reduce the impact of the rise in the price of raw materials and improve the profitability of bulk business. In 2021, the operating cash flow was stable, the advance receipts achieved high growth, and the stock reached 510 million yuan (year-on-year + 18.60%).
Focus on retail business, multi-channel layout and multi category coordination. It is expected to expand its share under favorable policies
The company will further strengthen the channel construction. In terms of traditional channels, the company will strengthen the expansion, make changes in the channel sinking, select regions with short board, accelerate investment attraction, actively expand the decoration mode, and cooperate with head decoration enterprises with strong customer resources, delivery capacity and brand strength. It is expected to bring revenue increment in 2022; At the same time, the company makes efforts in the business of kitchen cabinet, wardrobe and wooden door, strengthens the coordination between categories with the help of whole house customization, and develops the bathroom balcony business through investment promotion, which is expected to become a new growth point of the company’s retail business. Under the policy catalysis of subsidies for home decoration to the countryside and the release of virtuous cycle signals in the real estate industry, the company is expected to further expand its market share by virtue of its high-quality channel fission ability and multi category coordination ability.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials and energy; New product development is blocked; Intensified market competition
