On February 8, the people's Bank of China and Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on the exclusion of affordable rental housing related loans from the management of real estate loan concentration (hereinafter referred to as the notice). experts believe that the policy mainly affects the loan tendency of banks to real estate enterprises, which will be indirectly transmitted to the purchase choice of residents, but it does not mean that the affordable rental purchase market can rest easy.
The notice mainly involves two policies: one is indemnificatory housing; Second, the centralized management system of real estate loans.
Indemnificatory housing is mainly provided to local individuals with housing difficulties, and the price is very favorable.
Taking Shanghai as an example, the area standard for housing difficulties is determined in principle according to the fact that the per capita housing construction area of families in a certain area of the city is less than 15 square meters. In terms of price, projects for social supply should be priced at less than 10% of the rental of rental housing in the same area and the same quality market. In addition, when charging, the rent of indemnificatory rental housing shall be charged monthly or quarterly, but the rent of more than one quarter shall not be collected in advance; The deposit shall not exceed one month's rent.
the centralized management system of real estate loans refers to the notice on establishing the centralized management system of real estate loans of banking financial institutions issued by the people's Bank of China and Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission on December 28, 2020. the notice divides banking financial institutions into five grades: large Chinese funded banks, medium-sized Chinese funded banks, small Chinese funded banks, non County Rural cooperative institutions, county rural cooperative institutions and rural banks, and stipulates the upper limit of real estate loans and personal housing loans of these five grades, which are 40%, 32.5%, 27.5%, 20%, 22.5% and 17.5% respectively, 17.5%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 7.5%. The third, fourth and fifth gears can fluctuate by 2.5 percentage points according to the actual situation.
How will the notice affect the mortgage market?
Wang Hao, chief macro researcher of Yixin wealth, believes that the policy orientation of the notice is relatively clear and should have a certain impact on the mortgage market. "This new deal is mainly aimed at the loans of real estate enterprises in the loan concentration system, which directly affects the real estate enterprises and will be transmitted to the purchase choice of residents, especially in some first and second tier cities with high house prices and tight supply and demand."
He said that on the one hand, the new deal will attract some credit into the affordable housing market, which will promote the development of the affordable housing market; On the other hand, the new deal will also have an impact on the supervision ideas of local governments and the business decisions of real estate enterprises. On the whole, the new deal can be regarded as an important measure to practice "housing without speculation". In the long run, a sound affordable housing market can be regarded as a public product and service in the future, which will have a more and more significant impact on China's population flow and even urban economic development.
Can the indemnificatory housing market rest assured? Sun Yang, chief analyst of Kerui real estate industry, suggested that policy easing can bring more financing to real estate enterprises to invest in the construction of affordable rental housing, but the demand for such housing is still a question to be answered. to meet the demand of residents for rental housing is not only to provide housing, but also supporting medical, educational and living infrastructure.
the expectation of real estate recovery is gradually clear
In 2021, affected by the tightening policies of the real estate industry and the thunderstorm crisis of real estate enterprises, the growth rate of real estate development investment and commercial housing sales decreased. According to the national real estate development investment and sales released by the National Bureau of statistics on January 17, the national real estate development investment in 2021 was 14760.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% over the previous year. The sales area of commercial housing was 1794.33 million square meters, an increase of 1.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate decreased by 5.1% compared with 7.0% in 2020; Commercial housing sales reached 18193 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%, down 3.9% from 8.7% in 2020.
Since 2022, the principle of "housing without speculation" has been continuously implemented in terms of bank lending speed and policy adjustment, and the recovery expectation of the real estate industry has been clear.
In the first month of 2022, affected by the downward inertia of the industry, the price of second-hand houses still showed a downward trend month on month, but there were signs of narrowing the decline. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in January 2022, the second-hand housing price index of shell 50 cities decreased by 0.3% month on month, 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The number of declining cities further decreased, and the cities with faster house price repair are mainly the first tier cities and the second and third tier cities with better fundamentals. The second-hand housing price index in Beijing, Shanghai, Foshan, Suzhou and other cities rose steadily in January after stopping falling month on month; Quanzhou, Changsha, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, Wuxi, Hefei and other second-hand housing price indexes stopped falling and stabilized.
interest rates in many parts of the country fell
in late January, affected by the decline of LPR interest rate, the mortgage interest rate decreased as a whole. the interest rate of the first house loan of banks in Beijing generally fell to 5.15%, and that of the second house loan fell to 5.65%; The interest rate of the first house loan of banks in Shanghai generally fell to 4.95%, and that of the second house loan fell to 5.65%; In Shenzhen, the interest rate of the first house fell to 4.9% and that of the second house fell to 5.2%.
in addition, banks in many regions have also taken the initiative to reduce the mortgage interest rate and improved the lending speed. for example, a number of state-owned banks in Suzhou lowered the interest rate of the first house loan to 4.95%, 0.75 percentage points lower than the interest rate of 5.7% at the end of 2021; The lowest interest rate for second home loans can reach 5.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from 6% at the end of last year. The reporter's research on the Shanghai housing loan market in January also shows that while the housing loan amount is sufficient, the housing loan speed of banks is also greatly shortened, generally from January to February, up to one week at the fastest.
some places have also relaxed the restrictions on provident fund loans. from February 1, Fuzhou applied for a pure housing provident fund loan for the second time, and the proportion of down payment was adjusted to 40%. In addition, the second application for housing provident fund loan can be applied in the month after the first settlement, while it originally took 12 months to apply.
