Market review in January: the industry fluctuated downward, and the cement pipe sector performed better
In January, the building materials sector fell 8.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.98pct. Among the three sub sectors, only the cement sector achieved positive relative returns. In January, it fell slightly by 1.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.76pct. The glass and other building materials sectors fell 14.43% and 10.01% respectively, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.81pct and 3.11pct respectively. The cement pipe in the sub sectors Rose (+ 1.59%).
“Steady growth” helps infrastructure investment, and the recovery of real estate completion is expected to continue
In 2021, China’s broad infrastructure investment increased slightly by 0.21% year-on-year. Under the continuous promotion of the task of “stable growth”, the progress of special bond issuance has been significantly accelerated in January this year. During the Spring Festival, the national development and Reform Commission once again stressed the need to moderately accelerate infrastructure investment. We believe that there is a good support for infrastructure investment throughout the year. In terms of real estate, the annual growth rate of investment end, new construction and sales area under strict policy control continued to slow down, and only the completion end maintained a cumulative growth of 11.2%. With the marginal recovery of the implementation of real estate policies since the second half of last year and the easing of market concerns, the back-end completion under “guaranteed delivery” is expected to perform better.
The industry runs smoothly and the glass is not light in the off-season
After the Spring Festival, the price of cement clinker in the Yangtze River Delta has increased, which is mainly affected by factors such as low absolute price, active downstream goods preparation and moderate inventory. However, due to the influence of rain and snow in the south, the overall demand recovery still needs to be observed; Affected by the replenishment of inventory by some downstream processing plants before the festival, the price of the glass industry increased steadily and the inventory decreased slightly, which is rare in the off-season over the years. At present, there are still stock orders in the downstream and there are almost no inventory in small and medium-sized processing plants. The prosperity of the glass industry after the festival supported by demand is expected to continue to improve; The short-term supply side of the glass fiber industry is expected to change little, and the demand side pays attention to the recovery rhythm. At present, the inventory is still at a low level, and the roving is expected to maintain a stable trend as a whole; The demand support of electronic yarn is limited, and it is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. It is expected that the price of electronic yarn and electronic cloth may still be under pressure.
February combination: Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233)
Since the economic work conference last December, the central government has set the overall working idea of “stable growth” for 22 years. After January, the market’s worries about the future economic downturn spread, and the major indexes continued to weaken. In the same period, the central bank and the national development and Reform Commission continued to introduce relevant measures to accelerate “steady growth”. In view of the fact that the current industry operation is in the post holiday resumption stage in the off-season, the final strength and elasticity of “stable growth” cannot be falsified, and the market has entered a good window period of “stable growth” in the game of “traditional economic growth kinetic energy”, it is suggested to focus on the relevant varieties with capital construction and real estate demand and high safety margin of valuation, and grasp the cement Window opportunities for glass, recommended Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ; At the same time, other building materials with great growth potential in the medium and long term can be appropriately considered. It is recommended that Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) .
Risk warning: the landing of the project is lower than expected; Supply increased more than expected; The cost rise exceeded expectations.
