Current investment tips:
In 21 years, oil prices continued to break new highs, but affected by the high price of raw materials and the off-season of Q4, the demand fell month on month, and the profitability of some enterprises decreased in the second half of the year. With the recovery of the epidemic in the past 21 years, the overall demand for chemicals remained high and the export demand remained strong. On the cost side, as of December 31, 2021, Brent's oil price was $77.94/barrel, up 18% from the beginning of the year. On the whole, the average price of Q4 was $79.34/barrel, rebounding 8.7% month on month; In Q4, affected by the rising price of raw materials and the traditional off-season, the demand fell month on month, the prosperity of chemicals fell month on month, and the profitability of the industry was partially damaged. According to the profit forecast of 56 mainstream chemical companies tracked by us in 2021, the weighted average EPS in 2021 is expected to be 1.60 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100%, including Q4 weighted average EPS of 0.37 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60% and a month on month decrease of 8.3%. The performance is in line with expectations. The sub industries with large year-on-year increase in net profit in 2021 are mainly phosphorus compound fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry, nitrogen fertilizer and coal chemical industry, potassium fertilizer, spandex, viscose, chlor alkali, soda ash, fluorine chemical industry, titanium dioxide, etc. Among them, the sub industries with large month on month growth in Q4 are mainly pesticides, fine chemicals and fluorine chemical industry; Potash fertilizer, viscose, chlor alkali, soda ash, etc. declined significantly.
MDI export demand continues to be strong, but due to the impact of maintenance plan and device force majeure, the performance of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Q4 is expected to decline slightly; The central oil price increased month on month, but China's coal price increased synchronously, and the profits of coal chemical enterprises remained stable; The supply side of winter storage is limited, the supply and demand of pesticide Q4 is tight, and the boom is upward. China's MDI export exceeded expectations, but the Q4 storage device maintenance plan and the impact of force majeure are expected to be 24.542 billion yuan (YoY + 144%, refers to the net profit attributable to the parent company, the same below) in Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 2021, of which Q4 is 5 billion yuan (YoY + 7%, qoq-17%).
Driven by the rise of oil prices and the sharp rise of overseas natural gas prices, coal chemical enterprises maintain a boom in the prices of related coal products, but China's coal prices rise rapidly at the same time, and the raw material prices affect part of the profits of enterprises. It is estimated that Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) 2021 will be 7.262 billion yuan (YoY + 304%), of which Q4 will be 1.65 billion yuan (YoY + 225%, qoq-9%); Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) in 2021, it was 4.606 billion yuan (YoY + 458%), of which Q4 was 1 billion yuan (YoY + 182%, QoQ + 3%). Winter storage and inventory replenishment drive the upward demand for Q4 pesticides. The superposition of environmental protection and energy consumption dual control policies leads to tight supply side and the overall prosperity of pesticide products. It is estimated that Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) 2021 will be 1.336 billion yuan (YoY + 10%), of which Q4 will be 320 million yuan (YoY + 72%, QoQ + 43%); Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) in 2021, it was 350 million yuan (yoy-9%), of which Q4 was 80 million yuan (YoY + 561%, QoQ + 253%); Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) 1.483 billion yuan (YoY + 152%) in 2021; Q4 is 450 million yuan (YoY + 194%, QoQ + 12%).
In the field of fine chemicals: the demand for sweeteners increased, the price of raw materials increased, and the profits of leading enterprises increased quarter by quarter; The profit of vitamin leading enterprises maintained high growth year-on-year. Sweetener: it is estimated that Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) 2021 will be 1.093 billion yuan (YoY + 52%), of which Q4 will be 380 million yuan (YoY + 105%, QoQ + 39%). Vitamin: it is estimated to be 4.416 billion yuan (YoY + 24%) in Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) 2021, of which Q4 is 1.05 billion yuan (YoY + 68%, QoQ + 10%); Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) in 2021, it was 1.671 billion yuan (YoY + 24%), of which Q4 was 420 million yuan (YoY + 66%, qoq-3%). Dyes: it is estimated that Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co.Ltd(600352) 2021 will be 3.456 billion yuan (yoy-17%); Among them, Q4 is 450 million yuan (yoy-56%, qoq-7%), Zhejiang Runtu Co.Ltd(002440) 2021 is 899 million yuan (YoY + 14%); Among them, Q4 is 230 million yuan (yoy-1%, qoq-14%).
In the field of new materials: the acceleration of import substitution and the rapid expansion of downstream production capacity will bring rapid growth to Chinese semiconductor material enterprises in the future, which will be beneficial to new material enterprises in related fields. Semiconductor materials: it is expected to be 530 million yuan (YoY + 28%) in 2021, of which Q4 is 140 million yuan (YoY + 103%, qoq-5%); Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) in 2021, it was 221 million yuan (year-on-year turnaround), of which Q4 was 70 million yuan (year-on-year turnaround, QoQ + 18%); Jingrui shares in 2021 was 207 million yuan (YoY + 169%), of which Q4 was 42 million yuan (YoY + 175%, qoq-16%), Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) 2021 was 143 million yuan (YoY + 34%), of which Q4 was 40 million yuan (YoY + 23%, QoQ + 8%). As for other new materials, the Sixth National Committee of the Communist Party of China has steadily promoted favorable zeolite molecular sieve and ceramic materials: it is estimated that Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) 2021 will be 688 million yuan (YoY + 36%), of which Q4 will be 195 million yuan (YoY + 25%, QoQ + 2%); It is estimated that Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) 2021 will be 811 million yuan (YoY + 41%), of which Q4 will be 210 million yuan (YoY + 33%, QoQ + 1%). Lithium battery materials: it is estimated that Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) 2021 will be 1.307 billion yuan (YoY + 152%), of which Q4 will be 439 million yuan (YoY + 205%, QoQ + 2%). Materials in military fields such as carbon fiber and aramid fiber: it is expected to be 759 million yuan (YoY + 18%) in Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) 2021, including 141 million yuan (YoY + 20%, qoq-23%) in Q4 and 961 million yuan (YoY + 269%) in Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) 2021; Among them, Q4 is 230 million yuan (YoY + 194%, qoq-21%).
Other segments: the profitability of phosphorus chemical industry remains strong; Fluorine chemical industry benefits from the cost side support and highlights the advantages of integrated enterprises; The prices of titanium ore and titanium dioxide are booming and have strong profitability; The performance of tires is under pressure due to the high sea freight and the rising price of raw materials; Chlor alkali, soda ash and other bulk commodities are greatly affected by the double control of raw material price and energy consumption, and their profitability is callback. Phosphorus chemical industry: Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) it is estimated to be 3.64 billion yuan (YoY + 1238%) in 2021, of which Q4 is 800 million yuan (YoY + 381%, qoq-37%); Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) it is expected to be 4.35 billion yuan (YoY + 597%) in 2021, of which Q4 is 1.862 billion yuan (YoY + 612%, QoQ + 38%); Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) it is expected to be 1.261 billion yuan (YoY + 32%) in 2021, of which Q4 is 210 million yuan (YoY + 32%, qoq-40%).
Fluorine chemical industry: it is expected to be 1.108 billion yuan (YoY + 1062%) in Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) 2021, of which Q4 is 850 million yuan (YoY + 1394%, QoQ + 450%); China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) in 2021, it was 260 million yuan (YoY + 9%), of which Q4 was 90 million yuan (YoY + 28%, QoQ + 30%); Titanium dioxide: it is estimated that Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) 2021 will be 5.311 billion yuan (YoY + 132%), of which Q4 will be 1.48 billion yuan (YoY + 337%, QoQ + 6%); Tires: it is estimated that Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) 2021 will be 1.029 billion yuan (yoy-54%), of which Q4 will be 100 million yuan (yoy-84%, qoq-35%); It is estimated that Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) 2021 will be 1.302 billion yuan (yoy-13%), of which Q4 will be 300 million yuan (yoy-6%, basically unchanged month on month); It is estimated that Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) 2021 will be 723 million yuan (yoy-26%), of which Q4 will be 150 million yuan (yoy-43%, qoq-15%). Soda ash: it is estimated that Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) 2021 will be 1.682 billion yuan (YoY + 135%), of which Q4 will be 160 million yuan (yoy-77%, qoq-55%); It is estimated that Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) 2021 will be 611 million yuan (yoy-342%), of which Q4 will be 190 million yuan (yoy-232%, QoQ + 13%).
Maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry. In 2021, the internal and external demand resonates, the cost of oil, gas and coal is still supported, and attention is paid to the cycle with clear growth attributes and the undervalued Baima in the growth field.
Traditional industries: stick to value, pay more attention to alpha in the front line, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (long-term high R & D investment + high capital expenditure to support development), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (benefit from the expansion of oil coal ratio, accelerate the expansion and layout of new energy and new materials in Dezhou + Jingzhou) Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (Youjia project continues to promote and continue the company's growth, and pesticide creation is expected to become the main development direction in the future), Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) (global vitamin leader, large capital development support and continuous implementation to lay a long-term growth), Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) (titanium industry maintains prosperity and layout new energy materials) Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (global leader in sweeteners, high growth rate track superimposed capacity expansion opens a new round of growth), Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) (China's new retail + global capacity expansion is expected to become the world's first-line leader), Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (improvement of equity structure + acceleration of capital expenditure).
Attention to subdivided leaders: pay attention to Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) and Zangger mining (double leaders of potassium and lithium). With the implementation of the contract price of potassium fertilizer, the price difference of potassium fertilizer outside China is expected to narrow, and the lithium extraction from salt lakes is expected to expand steadily. Phosphorus chemical industry and titanium dioxide enterprises have integrated layout of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate new energy materials, focusing on Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) , and other suggestions on Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) , Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) , Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) ; Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) 、 Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) 、 Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) ； Metal silicon and silicone Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) ; Fluorine chemical related companies pay attention to China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) ; Calcium carbide-bdo-pvc boom upward concern Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) ; The rising price of staple grain drives the growth of agrochemical demand. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) , Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) for pesticides; Coal chemical industry leaders Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ; The auto industry chain pays attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Shenma Industry Co.Ltd(600810) , Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) , Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) ; Water reducing agent faucet Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ; Methionine bottom inversion focus Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) ; Soda ash focuses on Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) .
Market hot spots gradually switch to segmentation and growth. It is suggested to pay attention to 1. Semiconductor materials: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) ; Panel materials Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Phichem Corporation(300398) ; 2。 Wind power photovoltaic materials:
\u3000\u3000 Hubei Huitian New Materials Co.Ltd(300041) 、 Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) ； 3。 Tail gas catalytic materials Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Aofu Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688021) ; 4。 Lithium battery materials: Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603867) , phosphorus chemical industry, etc; 5。 Military materials: Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) ; 6。 Bio based materials Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) , Ningxia Xinri Hengli Steel Wire Rope Co.Ltd(600165) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) ; 7。 Fine chemical materials: Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) , Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) .
Core hypothetical risks: 1) the progress of new projects in the industry is less than expected; 2) The price of some chemical products fell sharply due to the obstruction of export; 3) The sharp fluctuation of raw material prices affects the profitability of chemicals
