In the first two trading days of the year of the tiger, many investors had ups and downs. On February 7, the market was jubilant, but on February 8, the situation changed suddenly. On that day, the Shanghai index fell by more than 1% and fell to 3400 points in the morning, and finally closed with an increase of 0.67%, while the gem index fell sharply by 2.45% throughout the day.
In an interview with the securities times, many market participants said that the external factors are important triggers for the fluctuations since the beginning of 2022. Although many investors believe that the Fed has expected to raise interest rates, the impact of the adjustment of yield on global capital flows can not be ignored. The negative feedback of expectations and transactions caused by the rapid decline before the festival needs time to be repaired, resulting in significant market shocks at the beginning of the year of the tiger. However, on the whole, the sustained steady growth policy will eventually have an effect, and the landing of the expected improvement of corporate profits will eventually promote the V-shaped recovery of the A-share market.
the overvalued sector dragged down the market
On February 8, the A-share market fluctuated. In the morning, all sectors fell sharply. In the afternoon, driven by financial and other sectors, the Shanghai index rebounded higher and returned to above 3400 points. The gem index once fell by more than 4%. As of the closing of the day, a total of 878.8 billion yuan had been traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a net outflow of 817 million yuan from the north.
Some market participants believe that the current shock is more a continuation of the sharp market adjustment before the Spring Festival, and there are no more new negative factors.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Wang Sheng, chief strategist, pointed out that the external factors are important triggers for the year to date fluctuations. Under the expectation of inflation concerns and monetary policy tightening, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose by nearly 1.95%. Although many investors believe that the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected, the impact of the yield adjustment on the global capital flow is real. China’s monetary policy is dominated by China and can hedge many related impacts, but the marginal impact is still reflected in Hong Kong stocks and a shares.
Wu Kaida, chief strategist at deppon securities, also believes that the accelerated decline of A-Shares was mainly the week before the Spring Festival. At that time, the situation in Russia and Ukraine was tense, and the sharp decline of overseas stock markets caused panic among A-share investors. The market was worried about the emergence of “black Swan” during the Spring Festival and stampede caused by concentrated risk avoidance before the festival. During the Spring Festival, there was no “black swan”, and the overseas market performed well. The annual yield of the S & P 500 narrowed to about 6% from more than 10% before the festival. At the beginning of the year of the tiger, the performance of A-Shares fluctuated, mainly due to the expectation and negative feedback of trading caused by the rapid decline before the festival, which needs time to be repaired.
Recently, high valuation track stocks represented by new energy and CXO have indeed made a rapid correction, which has brought great pressure to the market. New energy leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell 2.22% and 6.66% respectively on February 7 and 8.
In this regard, Wang Sheng believes that, “From the perspective of behavioral finance, the impact of the rise of US bond yield at the beginning of 2021 on the overvalued and crowded sectors at that time makes investors remember deeply. When facing a similar environment again in 2022, investors immediately sold overvalued stocks under the learning effect. Overvalued stocks are just the heavy positions of institutional investors, which disrupted the positive cycle of market profit-making effect and appeared There are fluctuations. “
However, on the whole, the market is still relatively optimistic about new energy and other industries.
\u3000\u3000 “Track stocks do have high valuation, expected overdraft, trading congestion and other problems, which will lead to ups and downs, but track stocks still rely on profits to digest the valuation for a long time. We calculated before the festival. Taking Ning index as an example, under the three profit expected growth paths of optimism, neutrality and pessimism, the valuation digestion speed is faster. Even if it is pessimistic, it will be digested in 2022 Near historical median level. ” Wang Sheng said.
Wang Sheng also believes that the performance growth of new energy and new energy vehicles in 2022 is still rapid, and there are still comparative advantages compared with other industries. After the stock price is adjusted and the microstructure is more reasonable, the stock price of relevant companies will usher in opportunities again.
the improvement of profits promoted the recovery of A-Shares
Before the beginning of trading in the year of the tiger, there are many views that have high expectations for the new market in the new year. Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of securities, said on January 28 that the impact of external factors on A-Shares is relatively indirect, and the short-term bad is expected to be exhausted. This time, the Fed officially turned to hawks to express its position in “one step”. In fact, the timing and range of interest rate increase and contraction did not exceed market expectations. In the future, there is not much time and space left for the fed to accelerate the progress of monetary normalization again, and the fluctuation of US stock market will also curb the speed and intensity of interest rate increase and contraction. On the other hand, the market has also responded to this to a considerable extent. The probability of large and rapid outflow of funds suppressing the performance of the A-share market is low.
Chen Guo believes that there is still enough room for the current policy, and the internal environment will show a marginal improvement trend in the next stage. Historically, the sharp decline caused by passive position reduction due to non fundamental factors is not a selling point but a buying point. Therefore, the probability of A-Shares rebounded to a certain extent after the festival.
At present, although the A-share year of the tiger has been blocked after its “good start”, the V-shaped rebound of the Shanghai stock index yesterday still reflects that the market has a great positive driving force, and many market people still maintain a positive view on the medium and long-term trend of the market.
“We must have confidence. On the whole, the development trend of A-share institutionalization is still the direction, and the general direction of volatility is still shrinking. The volatility at the beginning of 2022 has created conditions for the recovery in the second half of 2022.” Wang Sheng said that in 2022, A-Shares will reverse in V shape. After the fluctuations in the first half of the year, the market will “Phoenix Nirvana and rebirth”.
He believed that the policy of stabilizing the economy in the first half of the year will gradually achieve results. Investors experienced a similar mental journey in 2012. At the beginning of easing, investors did not see the actual effect, “no rabbit, no Eagle”. It was not until the meso data of heavy trucks, cement and construction machinery improved significantly in September 2012 that their mood began to ease, and ushered in a bottoming rebound in December 2012. The CSI 300 index rose 7.6% throughout the year. In other words, the continuous policy will eventually have a high probability of achieving results, and the landing of the expected improvement of corporate profits will eventually promote the V-shaped recovery of the A-share market.
Wu Kaida also pointed out that at present, the market believes that the end of the policy has come and the end of the market is coming. Taking history as a mirror, the general order of the bottom of A-Shares in history is “policy bottom – market bottom / economic bottom”. In the stage of Pringle’s counter periodic regulation, it will be the most grinding whether it is stable or not. There is still a time lag from policy stability to market stability. M2 has been accelerated. As a leading indicator, the release of social finance data after the year is an important signal to enhance market confidence. From the performance of large categories of assets, the long-term interest rate broke 2.7%, the convertible bond was strong, and the REITs reached a new high, implying the pursuit of deterministic growth by financial institutions. The performance price ratio of stocks and bonds has further improved. With the clearer steady growth and the stabilization of molecular expectations, there will be more opportunities to rotate to a shares.
