The long silent banking sector has finally ushered in spring.
In case of the largest increase in the stock market of China's listed banks in the past 36} years, only the stock market of China's listed banks fell by more than 36% in case of the largest increase in the stock market of China's listed banks.
Funds are still pouring in. On February 8, the bank sector received the main capital to increase its holdings by 4.684 billion yuan, ranking first in the whole market. A bank ETF received a net inflow of more than 110 million yuan throughout the day, with a closing scale of 10.5 billion yuan, a new high since its listing. Data show that in the past month, land stock connect has a total net purchase of A-Shares of 17.6 billion yuan, of which 15.64 billion yuan has flowed into bank shares, accounting for nearly 90%. In addition, part of the top flow also continued to increase positions in the banking sector in the fourth quarter. BlackRock China new vision, the first foreign public fund, will also buy China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) to the third and fifth largest heavy positions.
Looking forward to the market in 2022, some insiders believe that under the annual economic background of "stable growth", the price performance of the sector with low valuation and low market allocation proportion is prominent, while the bank shares have good allocation value.
90% of the funds flow into the banking sector
On February 8, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. Driven by financial stocks, they showed a V-shaped reversal trend. Bank stocks continued to rise, strengthened again, took up the banner of a shares, and remained silent for several months. They can be called the largest "dark horse" in 2022.
In terms of individual stocks, Bank of Lanzhou rose the limit, China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) rose by more than 3%, and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) rose by more than 2%. Taking ETF as an example, as of the closing on February 8, Huabao China Securities bank ETF (512800) closed up 1.59%, and the floor price was 1.214 yuan, a new high in nearly four months, with a full day turnover of 593 million yuan. Near the end of the trading, the bank ETF was significantly increased, showing the layout on the right side of the capital rise. The market data showed that the fund received a net capital inflow of more than 110 million yuan throughout the day, with a closing scale of 10.5 billion yuan, which also reached a new high since its listing. In terms of main funds, on the 8th, the bank sector was increased by 4.684 billion yuan, ranking first in the whole market.
When the hot track in the early stage stepped down from the altar, the CSI bank index rose by 7.36% during the year, surpassing all 31 Shenwan industries in the market, and the ETF of Huabao CSI bank also rose by 7.24%, outperforming 29 of the 41 bank stocks listed in A-Shares in the same period, with a winning rate of more than 70%, and the excess return relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was as high as 13.95%.
In addition, the ETF products of banks of major fund companies also increased by 5% - 7%, which were at the forefront of the fund increase list. It is worth mentioning that there is still a resonance effect between the banking sector of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares, and the increase of Hong Kong stock related funds is more obvious: for example, Taikang Hong Kong stock China Securities bank, which tracks Hong Kong stocks such as HSBC Holdings, China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) and other Hong Kong stocks, increased by more than 13% after a year, and even surpassed a number of crude oil funds, ranking the 10th in the fund performance.
During this period, northward funds also secretly overweight the sector. Data show that in the past month, land stock connect has a total net purchase of A-Shares of 17.6 billion yuan, of which 15.64 billion yuan has flowed into bank shares, accounting for nearly 90%.
With the beginning of the annual report season, the 2021 express reports of many banks have been released one after another. The year-on-year growth of the net profit attributable to the parent company of Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) , Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) was 30.72%, 29.67%, 29.77%, 20.57%, 20.72%, 22%, 21.13%, 20.81% and 20.52% respectively. This sector seems to have a "high growth" trend.
On the one hand, there is steady financial growth, but on the other hand, the stock price is stagnant. In 2021, the banking sector fell by 0.91%, which highlights the valuation advantage more and more obvious. As of February 8, the latest valuation of the banking sector was only 0.67 times Pb, with a P / E ratio of 5.61 times, at the historical quantile of 4.29% and 20.27% respectively, which can be called "good quality and low price".
The annual report season is coming, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) it is expected that the overall operating performance of listed banks will be stable and good in 2021, and high-quality banks will be "strong and strong". The credit "made a good start" and the capital interest rate fell to a low level, which makes the year-on-year growth rate of 1q revenue expected to increase. It is estimated that the revenue growth of 1q22 listed banks is still stable, with significant year-on-year improvement and generally flat month on month. The real estate risk mitigation and the "steady growth" policy continued to work, and the bank index was ready for further upward growth.
some top flow fund managers took the lead in adding positions in bank stocks
Top flow fund manager Qiu Dongrong's preference for bank stocks is particularly obvious, and many fund products under his management also increased their positions in bank stocks in the fourth quarter.
Among them, the value of Zhonggeng small cap increased by Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) 2015.98 million shares in the fourth quarter, holding a total of 60363800 shares, and the shareholding ratio increased from 1.18% in the third quarter to 3.98%. Zhonggeng value quality one-year holding period hybrid and Zhonggeng value pilot hybrid increased their holdings of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) in the fourth quarter, with positions increased by 19.954 million shares and 15.3114 million shares respectively. The four funds under their management increased their positions in Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) in total by more than 63.31 million shares in the fourth quarter.
Qiu Dongrong said in the four seasons report, "in the financial sector, we are optimistic about regional bank stocks related to the manufacturing industry chain, serving the real economy and having unique competitive advantages. Such banks have stable operation, low fundamental risk, extremely low valuation and high growth." This strategy also makes Qiu Dongrong one of the few star fund managers with positive performance in the market that continues to decline after years.
Coincidentally, BlackRock's funds, the world's largest asset management giant, also fell in love with the banking sector during the establishment of positions. The first foreign fund raised by the company, the new quarterly report of the new era of China, is the 4 largest segment of the electronic banking, Baijiu, bio pharmaceutical and other sectors.
The fund holds China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) 6.3404 million shares and 14.1662 million shares respectively, accounting for 4.94% and 4.32% of the net value respectively, ranking the third and fifth heavyweight stocks.
insiders: at present, bank stocks have good allocation value
Recently, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on financial statistics. The press conference pointed out that we should open the monetary policy toolbox wider, maintain the stability of the total amount, avoid credit collapse, and actively "add" structural monetary policy tools. At the same time, we are required to move forward and stay ahead of the market curve.
Galaxy Securities believes that there is still room for the policy in the short term, which is helpful to deal with the pressure of overseas interest rate hikes and continue to underpin the macro economy. In view of the Fed's interest rate hike expectation in March, the current stage is an important window period for the policy to advance. In addition, the current broad credit pattern has been gradually established, which is conducive to the recovery of the banking industry, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates have been implemented one after another, the quota of special bonds was issued in advance in the first quarter, and the issuance of government bonds was accelerated, which is conducive to stimulating infrastructure investment and the demand for medium and long-term loans of enterprises, and accelerating the formation of the broad credit pattern.
For the A-share market in 2022, Cai Murong, fund manager of Huabao fund, has repeatedly stressed the annual economic background of "stable growth" and believed that there should be structural opportunities in the equity market in 2022. In the first half of 2022, we are particularly optimistic about the main line of "stable growth". On the one hand, referring to historical experience, the "steady growth" sector represented by real estate infrastructure chain and big finance is more related to the credit environment; On the other hand, the valuation of the "steady growth" sector is low and the proportion of market allocation is not high, which highlights the cost performance.
In terms of specific sectors, Cai Murong believes that bank stocks have good allocation value at the current time point. "On the one hand, with the policy support of the central bank's increasing credit supply, the real estate credit risk has gradually passed the time point with the greatest pressure, and the market's concern about the quality of bank assets is expected to be alleviated; on the other hand, we believe that in the first quarter of 2022, the credit expansion is strong, and the growth rate of social finance has bottomed out and rebounded. At this stage, banks usually have a better market performance."
Su Qingyun, Hua'an fund manager, said that the investment value of the banking industry is prominent, which is mainly reflected in four aspects:
First of all, under the downward pressure of the economy, the policy pays more attention to "risk prevention" and "stable growth". The "general gate of controlling currency issuance" is deleted from the monetary policy implementation report, and it is emphasized to grasp the strength and rhythm of the policy according to China's economic situation and price trend, and adhere to a more prominent position of serving the real economy, Handle the relationship between economic development and risk prevention. This shows that in the face of downward pressure on the economy, the willingness to support policies has increased.
Secondly, the impact of the debt crisis of individual real estate enterprises is limited, and the real estate industry will still maintain healthy development. The policy clearly stated that "safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market".
Third, in recent years, the bank has strengthened the handling of write off, and the stock risk has been largely cleared. The improvement range of various asset quality indicators is significantly higher, which is reflected in the rapid decline of non-performing generation rate and the rapid increase of provision coverage. At present, the asset quality of bank statements is more "clean and solid".
Fourth, due to the excessive pessimism of the market on real estate, local government financing and economic situation, the valuation of the banking sector has dropped significantly, and the current Pb (price to book ratio) is at a historical low.
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