Market changes
On February 7, 2022, the market rose sharply, of which the Shanghai index rose by 2.03% and the gem index rose by 0.31%. At the industry level, the growth of construction and decoration building materials, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, steel and nonferrous metals, banks and other stable growth related chains ranked first.
The suppression of external risk appetite was eliminated, the steady growth policy gradually took effect, and the market sentiment obviously warmed up
The main reasons for the sharp rise of A-Shares are as follows: ① during the Spring Festival, the peripheral market rebounded strongly and the inhibition of overseas risk appetite on A-Shares was eliminated. The continuous adjustment of A-Shares before the festival is largely due to the continued weak adjustment of U.S. stocks caused by the expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which inhibits the risk appetite of leading a shares. However, after the market reached a consensus and digested the Fed's interest rate hike after January 27, the decline of US stocks stopped and the inhibition of A-Shares in peripheral markets was eliminated. Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival, the three major indexes of US stocks rebounded and rose sharply, driving the A-share sentiment to pick up. ② The effect of steady growth is beginning to appear. In January, the comprehensive PMI was 51%, which was above the boom and bust line. Structurally, production continues to recover with the lifting of power and production restriction measures, consumption improves slightly, and investment is expected to rise gradually with the implementation of steady growth policy. The economy showed a weak recovery and continued to pick up. The concerns about the strength of the steady growth policy were alleviated, and the effect gradually appeared. ③ Continued inflow to the north and improved micro liquidity. Since January, many funds have opened self purchase. At the same time, the purchase restrictions of products have been liberalized. After the Spring Festival, the residents' configurable funds have increased, and the outflow funds before the festival have returned to the stock market. At the same time, the net inflow of funds going north is 5.6 billion, which changes the previous significant outflow, and the micro liquidity of the stock market is improving.
The steady growth policy continued to increase, the liquidity was loose and strongly supported, the overseas inhibition was eliminated, and the agitation was on the rise
We will increase policy support for steady growth and increase macro policy adjustment. Recently, policies have been implemented frequently. Following the sixth meeting of the State Council on the 20th and the Symposium of premier experts and entrepreneurs on the 22nd, Premier Li Keqiang continued to emphasize strengthening macro-control policies at the Symposium of foreign experts working in China on the 26th. It is expected that the subsequent steady growth policy will maintain the state of overweight and strength, which will become the core support for the re strengthening of A-Shares and the interpretation of the restless market. Macro liquidity remained loose and micro liquidity continued to improve. In January, the monetary policy marked by the whole chain interest rate cut and the excess continuation of MLF showed great easing. There is still the possibility of RRR reduction in February, MLF is also expected to be over renewed, and liquidity continues to maintain an abundant environment. In addition, with the rework in spring and the coming of the construction season in various regions, the wide credit is expected to speed up. Moreover, the self purchase of funds and the inflow of foreign capital continued to improve the micro liquidity environment. Overall judgment, under the multiple support of continued strengthening of policies, abundant liquidity and warmer risk appetite, the delayed restless market in spring is beginning to deduce.
In February, the market resumed its upward trend, and the chain of growth and steady growth went hand in hand
With the market digesting external bad news and risk constraints, supported by China's increasing policies, abundant macro liquidity and marginal signs of improvement in economic growth, the market is expected to usher in an upward trend again in February. The configuration can be carried out around four main lines: Main Line 1: growth style, benign adjustment has been in place, active layout or configuration of lithium battery, solar energy storage, semiconductor equipment manufacturers, national defense and military industry, growth diffusion 5g and localization 3.0 concept of computer basic industrial chain; The second stable growth chain of the main line, focusing on building materials, steel, urban gas / drainage pipeline transformation, new power grid construction and other directions, as well as the real estate sector with further relaxed regulation and control, and the boom is expected to hit the bottom and reverse; The third main line is financial style, focusing on securities companies with emotional response and banks with improved economic margin and expected blowout of credit scale in the first quarter; The consumption of main line 4 follows the rise, focusing on the mandatory consumer goods such as dairy products and condiments whose cost side has fallen recently and whose prices are still rising. In terms of theme opportunities, focus on digital economy, reform of state-owned enterprises and investment opportunities. Specific: ① new generation digital information infrastructure; ② Green and low-carbon of new infrastructure. 2022 is the last year of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform. The completion of state-owned enterprise reform is expected to be accelerated, focusing on the equity incentive plans of relevant state-owned enterprises and possible major asset injection or reorganization events.
Risk tips
The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; There is a deviation in China's economic forecast; China's policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations.
