Suggestions on asset allocation: the growth is good and the interest rate is increased. It is suggested to allocate more stocks and commodities and less bonds
The U.S. economy remains strong, and China's economic recovery trend has been superimposed. The policy of steady growth has been further strengthened. During the period of economic recovery superimposed with rising interest rates, it is suggested to allocate more stocks and commodities and less bonds.
Stock index: global stock markets are supported. ① China's stock market welcomes the restless market in spring. The preference inhibition of overseas risk events on A-Shares is one of the main factors for the weakening of the market. However, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on January 27 setting the interest rate hike in March, the market has reached a consensus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and the expectation of interest rate hike is also reflected in the market. Peripheral risks will no longer dominate the trend of A-Shares in February. China's steady growth policy is expected to become the core support for the re strengthening of A-Shares and the interpretation of the restless market. ② US stocks can fight back. The market has reached an agreement on the Fed's accelerated interest rate hike, and the stock price has been fully reflected. In the fourth quarter, the US GDP reached an annualized rate of 6.9%, the highest level in 2021, and is expected to continue to support the performance of us listed companies.
Bonds: monetary policy continues to release positive signals, and there is still the possibility of RRR reduction in the future, but the market has been priced. ① In February, the short end of China's bond market is expected to decline slightly, while the long end has limited downward space. ② The Fed tightened the monetary rhythm faster than the market expected, with good employment and inflation transmission, and the long and short ends of US bonds are expected to continue to rise.
Bulk commodities are recommended to be oversupplied with crude oil, rebar and glass. It is difficult for the global economy to maintain a high growth rate in 2021. The Fed's accelerated pace of interest rate hike has gradually weakened the impact on the commodity market except gold, and the overall demand continues to weaken slightly. It is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities of supply disturbance and strong demand varieties, namely crude oil, spiral steel and glass.
The dollar remained strong. The dollar will benefit from raising interest rates to maintain its strength.
Configuration logic: the Federal Reserve has accelerated the interest rate hike, and China's economic recovery is now in full swing
The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has been basically determined in March, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times in the year. The Fed basically "made it clear" that it would announce its first interest rate increase at the interest rate meeting in March. The follow-up market focus will mainly focus on the rhythm of raising interest rates. We believe that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of raising interest rates 3-4 times in the year. On the one hand, facing the problem of high inflation, the United States must raise interest rates as one of the solutions. On the other hand, the US unemployment rate in December and January was 3.9% and 4.0% respectively, which has reached the Fed's long-term unemployment rate target.
China's economic recovery is showing, and the steady growth policy continues to increase. With the further recovery of the production side after the Spring Festival, the effects of loose monetary policy and fiscal policy are gradually emerging, and the boom is expected to remain above the boom and bust line. Production is stronger than consumption, and the investment side still needs policy force.
Optimistic expectations of the epidemic continue to drive the recovery of global risk appetite. The authoritative medical journal The Lancet published an academic article in January. It is expected that the global immune barrier will be established in March, the worldwide covid-19 vaccination, research and development and cooperation of specific drugs will usher in significant benefits, and the covid-19 epidemic in China will be gradually controlled.
Risk tips
There are deviations in the prediction of economic recovery of various countries; China's foreign policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations; Covid-19 epidemic situation exceeded the expected development, etc.
