A week’s events
China: comprehensively increase efforts to stabilize growth, and the Winter Olympics will lead the trillion market. On February 1, Qiushi published Ning Jizhen’s article, affirming last year’s achievements and setting the overall tone of this year’s economic work. It is expected that the implementation of positive macro-control policies will be accelerated, multiple measures will promote the stable operation of the economy, and the new fertility policy will be effective within the year; On the 3rd, an article in the Economic Daily said that greater tax cuts and fee reductions would be implemented in 2022, demonstrating the determination of the central government to vigorously protect market players, boost market confidence and stabilize the macro-economic market under the potential downward pressure of the economy, and it is expected to focus on supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and high-tech industries; On the 3rd, the General Administration of Customs said that in 2022, some rules of C ptpp will be tested in some pilot free trade zones. It is expected that the follow-up will meet the requirements of high standard rules of cptpp, and continue to carry out reform and opening-up in key areas such as finance, telecommunications and investment from the perspective of deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises; On the 4th, the national development and Reform Commission introduced the overseas issuance of medium and long-term foreign debt by Chinese enterprises in 2021. It is expected that the expansion rate of overseas issuance of bonds by Chinese enterprises may slow down this year, and the downward difficulty of financing costs may increase, but green bonds and sustainable bonds will continue to maintain rapid growth; On the 4th, the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics was successfully held. The Winter Olympics embodies both science and technology and green, and the related industrial chain has broad prospects. In 2025, the total scale of China’s ice and snow industry may reach trillion, and there is great room for the development of related industries such as fitness and leisure, tourism, competitive performance, equipment manufacturing and venue and facility construction; In terms of Spring Festival transportation, the current passenger flow is significantly higher than that in 2021. It is expected that the number of passengers sent by the Spring Festival transportation nationwide this year will achieve or exceed the expectation of 1.18 billion, but under the influence of high ticket prices and the spread of the epidemic, the number of box office and film viewing people have decreased. On February 6, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission also made a prospect for 2022. It is expected that the CPI will continue to rise moderately, the increase of PPI may gradually decline, and the price trend of upstream and downstream will become more coordinated.
Overseas: the employment recovery in the United States is strong, and the expectation of interest rate hike in Europe is getting hot. On February 2 local time, OPEC + insisted on the original plan to increase production by 400000 barrels / day in March. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to tight supply and demand. However, there are uncertainties such as the resumption of Iran’s nuclear negotiations, the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the US government’s suppression of oil prices. Oil demand may also be affected by the radical measures taken by major central banks to curb inflation; On the 3rd local time, the European Central Bank decided to keep the three major interest rates unchanged, but Lagarde did not adhere to the previous “unlikely interest rate hike in 2022”. The market’s expectation of the European Central Bank‘s interest rate hike rose sharply. In the short term, the European Central Bank is still cautious about raising interest rates and needs to continue to pay attention to the changes of inflation, employment and other data; On the 4th, Xi Jinping held talks with Putin and issued the “joint statement of the people’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on international relations and global sustainable development in the new era” after the meeting. The two sides reached consensus on cooperation in many fields such as economy and trade, energy, science and technology, finance and transportation, and expounded the common positions of China and Russia on the concept of democracy, development, security and order, It is expected that China and Russia will continue to strengthen close cooperation; The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell for two consecutive weeks, with 467000 new non farm jobs in January, far exceeding market expectations. At present, the U.S. job market has withstood the test of the epidemic, and employment growth is expected to pick up. The recent rise in wages has also gradually heated up the expectation of raising interest rates.
Focus after the festival: China’s Caixin service industry, comprehensive PMI and foreign exchange reserves in January (Monday); December trade accounts of Japan, France and the United States (Tuesday); China’s social finance data in January, M1 and M2, new RMB loans, Germany’s trade account in December, and wholesale sales in the United States in December (Wednesday); OPEC monthly crude oil market report, US January CPI (Thursday); February University of Michigan consumer confidence index (Friday).
Risk tip: the epidemic spread beyond expectations and geopolitical tensions intensified.
