I. overview and Prospect of commodity market
The new year is approaching, and the enthusiasm of market transactions is cooling down
On Wednesday (January 26), most of China's commodity futures markets closed higher, while most of the black series rose, with thermal coal and iron ore up more than 3% and coke up more than 1%; Most energy chemicals rose, with styrene and soda ash up more than 3% and PTA up nearly 3%; Most base metals rose, with Shanghai aluminum up nearly 2%, Shanghai copper and international copper up more than 1%; Precious metals fluctuated; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) most rose, with beans up more than 2%, palm oil and corn starch up more than 1%.
Hot comment: the new year is approaching, with more overseas disturbance factors superimposed, and the market trading enthusiasm has cooled down. First of all, as the Spring Festival approaches, the mood of funds taking the initiative to avoid risks is heating up, and the disk is mostly dominated by reducing positions, with a large amplitude within the day; Secondly, the expectation of the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy is heating up, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing the market's risk appetite. Finally, Ukraine's geopolitical issues remain unresolved, and the risk of war between Russia and Ukraine remains. In addition, the IMF lowered this year's global economic growth to further suppress the market's risk appetite. Generally speaking, the current market has strong risk aversion, low willingness to trade, and it is difficult for commodities to have a trend market in the short term. Pay attention to risk management before the festival.
1. Black building materials: shock operation before the festival and pay attention to the release of demand after the festival.
As the new year approaches, the demand for capital hedging increases, the superposition of overseas risk factors increases, and the market trading enthusiasm is not high. It is difficult for the black system to have a trend market and maintain a volatile trend in the short term. From the fundamental point of view, the actual demand continues to weaken, while the steel output continues to rise, the accumulation rate of steel inventory is accelerated, and the winter storage price of steel mills is mostly between 4500-4600.
In the medium term, the central bank will start a new round of easing cycle. After the reduction of Omo and MLF interest rates, LPR interest rates will follow the reduction, and the market sentiment will turn to optimism. Although from the perspective of long-term cycle, the inflection point of real estate demand has arrived, with the continuous force of steady growth in short-term cycle, real estate will show more soft landing, and demand is expected to hit the bottom in the second quarter. At the same time, this year's fiscal policy is in advance, the new and old infrastructure is worth looking forward to, and the most pessimistic stage of steel demand may have passed. Focus on the release of demand after the festival.
2. Base metals: long and short factors are intertwined, and pay attention to the policy direction of the Federal Reserve.
The global economic recovery is still strong, coupled with the continuous introduction of China's policy easing measures to improve market sentiment, and there is still strong support for metals in the short term. However, inflation pressure continues to increase, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening policy continues to rise, and copper prices are affected by long and short factors at the same time. From the perspective of fundamentals, on the one hand, the supply of upstream copper mines shows an increasing trend, the supply of copper mines has improved compared with the previous period, and the import of crude copper has gradually recovered. The supply of raw materials of smelters is sufficient, and the production scheduling enthusiasm of smelters is high. China's refined copper output is expected to remain high; On the other hand, although the consumption in the downstream is weakening before the Spring Festival, there is a willingness to bargain hunting and stock, the inventory maintains a downward trend, and the market presents a tight supply situation, which forms a strong support for the copper price.
Precious metals: Although the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine has given strong support to gold, under the pressure of high inflation, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening policy is rising, and the US dollar index is strengthening again, or suppressing the upward space of gold.
3. Energy and chemical industry: the supply continues to be tight, and the oil price is still supported.
It is difficult to reach an agreement between the United States and Russia, and the probability of conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still high. Considering that Russia is a large energy producer and Ukraine is an important energy transportation channel, once the conflict breaks out, it will have a huge impact on global energy security. Further considering that OPEC has limited idle capacity, the expectation of tight supply is still strong, and the short-term support of oil price is strong.
Looking back, the impact of Omicron variant on crude oil demand is relatively limited at present. High frequency data show that the traffic congestion index and airport security inspection personnel in the United States are at a high level, reflecting that the consumption of refined oil has not been affected; In addition, the supply recovery of some OPEC oil producing countries is not as expected, especially the smaller oil producing countries cannot increase production, and the crude oil market remains tense. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term oil price will fluctuate at a high level under the influence of supply and demand factors, and the medium and long-term supply and demand will gradually tend to balance. It is still necessary to pay attention to the epidemic situation, the changes of epidemic prevention measures of various countries and the impact of Geopolitics on both ends of crude oil supply and demand.
4. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : the supply and demand is still tight, and the oil remains strong in the short term.
The weather forecast for the southern part of Brazil shows that the strong rainfall in the southern part of Brazil will continue to dissipate, but the dry weather forecast for the southern part of Brazil will still lead to the elimination of the dry weather in February.
Soybean oil: monitoring shows that last week, China's soybean crushing volume rebounded significantly, and the output of soybean oil increased. However, downstream enterprises continued to stock goods, picked up goods faster, and the inventory of soybean oil continued to decline slightly. It is expected that in the future, with the increase of inbound volume, the soybean crushing volume will continue to increase, and the soybean oil inventory may stop falling and turn up.
Palm oil: sppoma data show that from January 1 to 20, horse palm production decreased by 16.7% month on month, narrower than the previous 15 days. At present, Malaysia's palm oil is still in the production reduction cycle. The superposition of labor shortage and floods in Malaysia and China have interfered with the harvest work. It is expected that the output may not recover significantly before the first quarter. In addition, its data showed that from January 1 to 25, horse palm exports decreased by 32.94% month on month, narrower than the previous 20 days.
The market expects that the output of horse brown in the whole first quarter will be difficult to recover significantly. At the same time, the supply of rapeseed and soybean is still tight. There are many difficulties in the growth of global oil production and inventory reconstruction. The tight supply is still the main dependence of oil bulls. It is expected that oil will continue to be strong in the short term.
