Baijiu consumption scenario is diverse, and different price bands apply to different scenarios.
Baijiu has both material and spiritual attributes, making it relatively diversified consumption scenarios. The main consumption scenarios of Baijiu liquor vary from price to price. Under different consumption scenarios, consumers have different demands for Baijiu, and the price they are willing to pay varies, making their price stratification obvious. Overall, the more high-end Baijiu is, the lower the dependence on the real consumption scenario.
The impact of the epidemic is different due to different scenarios and different price bands.
Specifically, the impact of the epidemic on Baijiu’s main consumption scenarios is specifically divided, because the secondary high-end is the mainstream price band of the banquet scene, which is the most affected by the epidemic. During the outbreak of the epidemic, Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other high-end wines were the least affected by the epidemic; Secondary high-end wines such as shede and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) have been greatly impacted by the epidemic. During the recovery period, the income elasticity of sub high-end liquor enterprises such as drunkard, Fenjiu and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) was significantly higher.
During the Spring Festival of 2022, effective control and return to the countryside led to the popularity of Baijiu liquor.
1) the Spring Festival passenger traffic in 2022 was warmer, and the most beneficial scene of regional Baijiu revived. The Spring Festival transportation in 2022 will pick up obviously. One of the most important consumption scenarios of regional liquor is the public banquet. With the rapid increase of the crowd in the new year, the consumption of Baijiu and other banquets is rapidly restored, and regional Baijiu is the most beneficial.
2) Jiangsu: the epidemic prevention and control is effective, the upgrading of mass consumption is strong, and the Spring Festival sales are stronger than expected. Jiangsu is economically developed, and the mainstream price band of mass consumption has been upgraded to 300 yuan. This year, Jiangsu has a good control over epidemic situation. As a net inflow of population, the increase of passenger flow to the countryside during Spring Festival is slightly unfavorable to the consumption of Baijiu before liquor consumption. According to the feedback from the channel, the Spring Festival sales in Jiangsu still perform well, or because the strong acceptance of mass consumption will continue to stimulate the Baijiu consumption in the province.
3) Anhui: the epidemic has dispersed, driving the tide of returning home, and the Spring Festival sales are booming. Anhui has a strong economic vitality, and the scene consumption is dominated by mass banquets. As a province with a net outflow of population, the epidemic situation in Anhui has subsided this year, with fewer prevention and control measures. The restrictions on consumption scenes in the province are more relaxed. The tide of returning home has led to a rapid recovery of mass banquet consumption. On the basis of last year’s low base, the dynamic sales situation is booming this year. However, after the arrival of the tide of rework after the festival, the reduction of demand will lead to the decline of mobile sales, and the overall mobile sales may show the characteristics of “high in the front and low in the back”.
We believe that unlike 2022 and 2021, the recovery of consumption scenario will become the main contradiction throughout the year. The recovery of consumer scenarios and the steady growth of economy will replace the strong wealth effect as the driving force of industry growth. The recovery of the scene will contribute to high elasticity: 1) the growth stability and performance elasticity of Baijiu Baijiu are all obvious, and the profit margin will rise in 2022, and 2020. Channel expansion and other dividends. In the peak season of the Spring Festival, the Spring Festival benefits from returning home for the festival, scene recovery, rising prosperity, and continued to recommend Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . 2) The secondary high-end also benefits from the recovery of the scene. At the same time, there is a logic to improve the concentration after the impact of the epidemic. It is recommended to Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , and pay attention to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ; 3) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand resilience in high-end Baijiu is verified again, with emphasis on recommendation.
Economic downside risk; Market systemic risk; Repeated outbreaks and weak recovery; Sample selection deviation risk; Industry competition intensifies risks. T
