Zhou's views and investment suggestions
Spring Festival sales update: 1) industry side: maintain the prediction of weak recovery. Considering that the current retail environment and consumption intention are still suppressed by the repeated impact of the epidemic in some areas, the abnormal weather leads to the dislocation of sales of 4q21 and 1q22 goods, superimposed with the high base factors such as the overlap of the Spring Festival and Valentine's day in 21 years and the significant rebound of offline sales after the epidemic, we believe that the current garment industry as a whole is still in the process of weak recovery, although the sales in January improved month on month, The cumulative growth rate of clothing during the Spring Festival from January to February is still the key factor. 2) Key leaders: according to the channel research data, Li Ning brand is expected to achieve nearly 100% year-on-year growth in January 22; Excluding the pre impact of the Spring Festival, based on the year-on-year calculation of the lunar calendar (1.1-1.31 in 22 years compared with 1.11-2.11 in 21 years), it is expected to still achieve an increase of about 27% - 35%, perform brilliantly and maintain the leading advantage; Anta brand is expected to achieve double-digit growth in the Spring Festival and lunar calendar year-on-year, with smooth improvement of customer unit price, significant improvement of store efficiency of champion stores and excellent performance in the beginning of the year.
Pay attention to the structural opportunities of ice and snow and outdoor under the catalysis of the Winter Olympics: in the short term, the 22 year winter Olympics, which opened on February 4, is expected to continue to promote the popularization and development of ice and snow sports, drive the consumption of relevant clothing and stimulate the enthusiasm of domestic consumption. According to the data of Ali's skiing equipment on the beginning of new year's Eve, the year-on-year growth of skiing equipment exceeded that of Tianbing by 32% and 180% respectively. In the medium and long term, China's outdoor and ice and snow industries are in the stage of rapid growth. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, the sales of tents, ski equipment, surfing and diving and other products increased by 57%, 55% and 39% respectively in the same period in 21 years, and the penetration rate is still significantly lower than that of developed countries, with great growth potential.
Investment suggestion: under the background of weak recovery of brand clothing, it is recommended to pay attention to its own strength α、 Anta sports, Li Ning, Tebu international, etc. with leading ice and snow product layout and sufficient marketing related to Winter Olympic events. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to upstream intelligent, technological and functional leading manufacturing and raw material suppliers, including Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) , Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) .
Data and announcement tracking
Market review: the week before the Spring Festival (from January 24, 2022 to January 28, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 fell 4.57%, 5.00% and 4.51% respectively, and the textile and garment sector fell 4.46%, of which the textile sector fell 3.98% and the garment sector fell 4.92%.
Raw material price: 328 grade cotton spot 22718 yuan / ton (- 0.04%, weekly rise and fall); Cotton Cotlook A140 15 cents / pound (1.78%); The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is 1054 yuan / ton (- 10.45%).
Announcements of key companies: 1) Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) released the performance forecast for 2021, and the expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.45-1.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 79.97% - 92.38%; 2) Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) released the performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.2-2.5 billion yuan, an increase of 13.18% - 28.61% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 145-195 million yuan, an increase of 86.01% - 150.15% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 95-123 million, an increase of 68.44% - 118.09% at the same time. 3) Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 2.630-2.912 billion, an increase of 40% - 55% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.626-2.910 billion, an increase of 40-55% at the same time. 4) Xin Hee Co.Ltd(003016) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 286 million yuan, an increase of 60.17% over the same period of last year.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, rising labor costs in Vietnam and lower than expected price increase risk.
