The price of thermal coal continues to rise, and it is expected that the price will gradually fall after the Spring Festival. Recently, the supply side of coal has been tightened, private coal mines in some areas have stopped production during the Spring Festival holiday, and the rain and snow weather in the North has affected the transportation. The overall transaction is weak. Recently, the spot price of power coal has continued to rise. As of January 26, 2022, the spot price of q5500 in Qinhuangdao has reached 1040 yuan / ton, and the price has increased by 250 yuan / ton since January 4, with an increase of 31.64%. The main reason for the rise is that the supply side is still tight, the downstream continues to replenish inventory and will gradually enter the off-season of coal consumption after the Spring Festival due to the impact of Indonesia's coal import ban. In addition, the coal supply will be increased due to the continuous supply guarantee in winter before the Festival and the safety of coal and electricity during the Winter Olympic Games. As of January 26, the coal inventory of the power plant exceeded 170 million tons, an increase of more than 52 million tons year-on-year, The available days are more than 22 days, the highest level in history. After the Spring Festival, it will gradually enter the off-season of coal consumption, and the coal price is expected to fall.
The national development and Reform Commission strengthened the regulation and supervision of coal prices to ensure the stability of coal supply during the Spring Festival. The national development and Reform Commission has held a special meeting to deploy the work of stabilizing coal production, supply and price during the Spring Festival. At the same time, we will work with relevant departments to further strengthen market price regulation and supervision, severely crack down on illegal price behaviors in the spot and futures markets, and ensure that coal prices operate within a reasonable range. The recent rapid rise in coal prices has raised concerns about coal supply. At present, the coal inventory of the whole society is at a historically high level. In the short term, it is mainly affected by the contraction of supply caused by a few coal enterprises' holidays and the rise of freight caused by snowfall in the North. Basically, the coal supply and demand is stable, and the price has no supporting factors to continue to rise. It is expected that the price will gradually fall in the future.
Listed companies have successively issued high growth performance forecasts, and the advantage of coal undervaluation is still obvious. This week, since January 24, power investment energy, Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) have successively issued performance forecasts for 2021, all of which have achieved a significant increase in net profit. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the coal price rose and reached a record high. Although the price of the long-term association of coal enterprises lagged behind, it achieved a significant year-on-year increase in revenue and profit in the fourth quarter, driving the annual performance to significantly exceed the level of the same period. At present, the PE valuation of coal stocks is relatively low, concentrated in the range of 6-8 times, and Pb is basically less than 2 times. The coal price is still in a relatively high position, and it is expected that the coal price will not fluctuate significantly. Under the expectation of the benchmark price adjustment of the long-term association, the coal price has increased significantly compared with that before 2021. At present, under the background of the overall weakening of the market, High quality coal enterprises have low valuation, high dividend and relatively certain performance. It is recommended to increase the allocation proportion.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, impact of extreme weather and coal policy are not as expected.
