Key points:
Traditional Chinese Medicine II fell 7.08% last week, and the pharmaceutical sector continued its callback trend
Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 9684.57 points, down 6.83%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 7281.45 points, down 7.08%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 10743.04 points, down 8.26%; Biological products closed at 10233.14 points, down 5.42%; Pharmaceutical business closed at 5722.88 points, down 6.46%; Medical devices closed at 8675.24 points, down 7%; Medical services closed at 9590.72 points, down 5.75%. The pharmaceutical sector continued the callback trend, and the decline of traditional Chinese medicine was second only to chemical medicine.
From the performance of traditional Chinese medicine companies, the top companies are: Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600518) , Gansu Longshenrongfa Pharmaceutical Industry Co.Ltd(300534) , Anhui Huangshan Capsule Co.Ltd(002817) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , Lanzhou Foci Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002644) ; Companies with lower performance include: Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Kunming Longjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002750) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , Ji Yao Holding Group Co.Ltd(300108) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) .
Traditional Chinese medicine PE (TTM) decreased by 2.44x and Pb (LF) decreased by 0.26x
Last week, the PE of traditional Chinese medicine sector was 32.13x, the maximum value of PE in recent year was 39.7x, and the minimum value was 28.78x; The current Pb is 2.92x, the maximum value of Pb in recent years is 3.56x, and the minimum value is 2.57x. PE in traditional Chinese medicine sector decreased by 2.44x and Pb by 0.26x month on month. At present, the valuation is slightly lower than the median level in recent one year. The premium rate of traditional Chinese medicine sector relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 145.94%.
With the release of the “14th five year plan” for the development of pharmaceutical industry, the innovation and international development of traditional Chinese medicine are worth looking forward to
Nine departments, including the Ministry of industry and information technology, the development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of science and technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the health and Health Commission, the Ministry of emergency management, the state medical insurance administration, the State Food and Drug Administration and the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine, jointly issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of the pharmaceutical industry, covering basic principles, specific objectives, five major tasks and four guarantees, It is proposed that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of operating revenue and total profit of the pharmaceutical industry will remain above 8%, the proportion of added value in all industries will increase to about 5%, and the industry concentration will be further improved; The R & D investment of the whole industry will increase by more than 10% annually, and the proportion of new sales of innovative products in the revenue increment of the whole industry will further increase by 2025; Product innovation, technological breakthroughs and international development accelerated in an all-round way. The plan proposes to give play to the global leading role of traditional Chinese medicine standards, and make a breakthrough in the “going out” of Chinese patent medicine in the international development. The plan once again highlights the theme of “innovation”, and the innovation and international development of traditional Chinese medicine are worth looking forward to.
Take the east wind of policy and pay attention to the innovation and brand of traditional Chinese medicine
The biggest positive factor for the traditional Chinese medicine industry in 2022 is policy support. On the demand side, the rigid demand characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry and the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption jointly support the steady growth of the demand of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the policy side, a series of favorable policies have been formed to promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the development of formula particles, the support of medical insurance and payment policies, and the continuous addition of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces can not exceed 25%, bringing policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese Medicine industry. The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry walked out of the low point and showed a marginal improvement trend. On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry still has certain valuation advantages after valuation repair. “Policy + pharmaceutical consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantage” jointly constructs investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven.
(1) pay attention to the innovation of modern traditional Chinese medicine, and pay attention to the innovation targets of modern traditional Chinese medicine with strong R & D strength and layout of large categories (large market: cardio cerebrovascular + fast growth: pediatric medicine);
(2) pay attention to the advantages of brand traditional Chinese medicine, formula and raw materials, and jointly build a moat of brand traditional Chinese medicine;
(3) benefit from consumption upgrading, and pay attention to the subject matter of industrial chain extension and strong brand advantage.
Risk tips
(1) stricter industrial policies;
(2) industry and listed company performance fluctuation risk.
