\u3000\u3000 Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) (000997)
21 years of high performance growth, reverse trend established. Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) announced on the evening of January 24 that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 680-770 million yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 50% - 70%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company in 21 years will be 470-530 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10% - 24%. If the non recurring profit and loss of RMB 210-260 million brought by holding shares is not considered, calculated by the median value of the expected non deduction profit, the non deduction profit in the single quarter of 21q4 increased by 19.67% year-on-year, and the reversal trend of the company's performance is further established.
From a short-term perspective, two factors promote the reversal of cornerstone business. Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) business can be divided into three sectors: acquiring and value-added services, intelligent terminals and software services. Among them, payment acquiring and intelligent terminals are the cornerstone business. The reversal of the company's fundamentals is mainly due to the rebound of the two sectors. 1) The acquiring business has ushered in an inflection point, and the flow and rate are expected to double-click. After the supply clearing and economic restart under the impact of the epidemic, the business activities of merchants have warmed up. Head payment companies have room to improve both the flow scale and the receipt rate. Considering the flow scale of Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) about 2.5 trillion in recent years, the potential profit elasticity space is considerable. 2) The intelligent penetration of several currencies has accelerated, and the overseas market has further opened up space. The growth rate of the company's 21h1 electronic terminal business has reached 69%, getting rid of the dilemma of weak growth in 19-20 years. The core reason is the accelerated penetration of intelligent POS machines driven by digital RMB and the strong demand for POS machines in overseas markets, especially in South America.
The direction of digital economy is clear, and the imagination space can be expected. From a long-term perspective, with the issuance of the 14th five year plan for digital economy development by the State Council, digital economy has become one of the core main lines of China's economic development in the next stage, and Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) as the first manufacturer to grow up with the east wind of "Digital Fujian", is expected to deeply participate in China's digital economy construction. In the field of digital RMB, with the accelerated promotion of digital currency in China, the company's intelligent POS machine products are expected to accelerate the replacement and penetration with the help of digital currency; In the field of digital ID card, the company won the bid for digital ID card chip and module, which is expected to become a core supplier for subsequent promotion; In the field of digital infrastructure, Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) Sun company and Huawei Hongmeng cooperate in depth to jointly promote the penetration of Hongmeng system in the field of intelligent terminals, while the software service sector is mainly oriented to the medium and Taiwan data market of operators, with promising growth space.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's operating revenue in 21-23 years will be 8.079 billion yuan, 10.105 billion yuan and 11.666 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.4%, 25.1% and 15.4% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 719 million yuan, 827 million yuan and 1077 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58.3%, 15.0% and 30.1% respectively. According to the business attributes of Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) , Xgd Inc(300130) , Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) , Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) are selected as the comparable companies of Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) . As of the closing data on February 8, 22, the PE of the comparable companies in year 22 / 23 is 23 / 19 times respectively under the unanimous expectation of wind, while according to our performance forecast, the PE of the company in year 22 / 23 is 21 / 16 times respectively, Considering the rapid growth of Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) cornerstone business and the potential business space catalyzed by the digital economy, the company's valuation still has room to improve. For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: repeated outbreaks delay the recovery of the acquiring industry; The gross profit margin fell due to the intensification of competition in intelligent terminals; The promotion of digital RMB was less than expected.
