\u3000\u3000 Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) (002013)
Event: on January 21, 2022, the company released the performance express of 2021. The company's revenue in 2021 was 14.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.59%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.11%, deducting non net profit of 1.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.61%, lower than the market expectation.
Key investment points
Achieve the annual business plan objectives, and the performance is lower than the market expectations. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 14.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.59%, and achieved 110% of the annual business plan target; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 1.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.11%, and the annual business plan goal was fully completed. The growth of the company's performance slowed down in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the reduction in the number of products delivered year-on-year in preparation for subsequent production. The annual profit growth rate of the company is lower than that of revenue. The main reason is that the company increased R & D investment in 2021, and the increase of R & D expenses affected the profit growth.
Focus on the main business and divest non aviation assets. The company acquired Nanjing Hangjian in 2019, coordinated the maintenance capacity and resources of its subsidiaries, established a leading position in the field of aviation electromechanical system maintenance service support, and created a one-stop aviation maintenance service mode. At the same time, the subsidiary Qing'an refrigeration and Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) Sanyo refrigeration are merged. After the merger, it is expected that Qing'an refrigeration will no longer be included in the scope of the company's consolidated statements.
Aviation electromechanical system is the main supplier, benefiting from the high prosperity of the military industry. The company is a professional integration and industrialization development platform of AVIC's aviation electromechanical system business, providing electromechanical system supporting products and services for China's military aircraft under research and production. Under the background of "preparing for war" and "achieving the Centennial goal of building the army in 2027", the military industry chain has ushered in a high boom, and the batch production of models has brought broad demand; At present, there are a large number of electromechanical system products delivered by the company in the army. With the strengthening of practical training and the improvement of aircraft use frequency, the company's aviation maintenance business is growing rapidly, and the proportion of maintenance business is increasing year by year; In the civil field, the node of domestic large aircraft certification and mass production is approaching. At this stage, the electromechanical system uses foreign products, which can further thicken the company's performance driven by subsequent localization.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the high prosperity of the military industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period and the development prospect of the company's aviation business, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.259/16.62/2.048 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.32 yuan, 0.43 yuan and 0.53 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 37 / 28 / 23 times. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) downstream demand and order fluctuation; 2) The company's profit is less than expected; 3) Market systemic risk.
