\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) (002563)
Events
The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.45-1.55 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 79.97% - 92.38%; The net profit deducted from non-profit was 1.3-1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 71.79% - 85.00%.
Key investment points
In 2021, the performance basically recovered to the 19-year level, and the online channel promoted the positive growth of annual revenue. On the revenue side, the company promoted the online business of stores in the channel, launched the operation mode of physical stores + online cloud stores, expanded the live broadcast coverage platform, and captured the opportunities of emerging channels. The good performance of online channels drove the company's revenue growth in 2021. Under comparable standards (excluding French business and adjusted to net income, the same below), online channels increased by 16.44% in the first three quarters of 2021. In the double 11 of 2021, SEMA e-commerce realized sales of 2.289 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, of which SEMA increased by 30% and barabara increased by 40%.
On the net profit side, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.45-1.55 billion in 2021. Excluding the influence of French company K (published in early September of 20), the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 increased by 11.33% - 19.01% year-on-year. Taking the performance Prediction Center, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is expected to be RMB 557 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.52%, and the company's performance in the fourth quarter weakened month on month. We believe that, on the one hand, benefiting from the company's continuous product innovation, the gross profit margin increased in 2021. Under comparable standards, the gross profit margin of the company in the first three quarters of 21 years was 42.83%, an increase of 3.38pct over the same period of last year, including 2.95pct for casual clothing, 3.00pct for children's clothing, 1.94pct for online channels, 4.62pct for direct channels and 3.28pct for franchise channels, The operation quality of the company was significantly improved in 2021; On the other hand, the spread of the epidemic and the warm weather continued to have a negative impact on the company's offline same store. Superimposed on the uncertainty of the recovery of the overall retail environment of the industry, the company generally did not show a significant net opening of stores offline, and the offline channels dragged down the company's performance in the fourth quarter.
In 2021, the company's children's wear market share ranked first in the industry, and there is still room for improvement in the future. According to the company's announcement, in 2021, the top five market shares of China's children's wear market were 7.1%, 2%, 1.3%, 1.3% and 0.8% respectively. Balabalabala ranked first, 5.1pct ahead of the second market share and a solid leading position. The company expects to continue to strengthen the competitiveness of brands and products and increase market share in 2022 from the following aspects: focusing on the four categories of T-shirts, dresses, shoes and down jackets, strengthen the building of users' minds, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) build a brand feast, improve the voice of the brand, strengthen the operation of official website and small program self media content, improve the repurchase rate of members, revitalize the packaging of products Store image, optimize consumers' shopping experience, launch high-end children's clothing product line, and cover more new generation families with high consumption ability. According to the prospective industry research institute, in 2019, the market share of ID kids in France accounted for 15.4%, Carter's 11.7%, Shimamura 8.5% and next 8.4%. Compared with the market share of leading children's wear brands in developed countries, the market share of the company's children's wear business still has room to improve.
Investment suggestion: the company's offline channels have been affected by the epidemic and weather in the past 21 years, but the gross profit margin has increased year-on-year, the operation quality has been optimized, the leading position of children's clothing is stable, and the market share still has room to improve in the medium and long term. Considering that the terminal sales recovery of 21q4 company is weaker than expected, combined with the company's performance forecast, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1499 million, RMB 1764 million and RMB 20222 million respectively. The closing price on February 8 corresponds to about 11.5 times of the company's PE (2022e), maintaining the "Buy-A" proposal.
Risk tip: the recovery speed of retail environment is weaker than expected; The opening of casual wear stores was not as expected; Market competition intensifies.
