Under the policy environment of the central bank’s efforts to stabilize growth and broaden credit this year, the market is generally full of confidence in the “good start” of credit in January.
Among them, from the perspective of comprehensive institutions, the new RMB loans in January are expected to exceed 3.5 trillion yuan in the same period last year.
Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) the Financial Research Center believes that the policy is advanced and the banks have a “good start”. It is expected that the amount of new credit at the beginning of the year will be about 3.7 trillion yuan in January, higher than that in the same period last year; The credit balance is about 196.4 trillion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate may drop slightly to about 11.4%.
Specifically, the agency believes that the credit of the enterprise sector has entered the off-season of winter production, the activity of enterprise production and operation has further declined in January, and the financing demand is still not booming. However, under the influence of policies to guide credit growth and promote the stability of the real economy, with the superposition of the “good start” of credit at the beginning of the year, the scale of new credit of enterprises may exceed the level of the same period last year. In terms of resident sector credit, the transaction in the real estate market continued to operate at a low temperature in the beginning of the year, so it is expected that the demand for new medium and long-term loans of residents related to the actual transaction in the current period is still not active.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) it is expected that the new amount of RMB credit in January will be 4.3 trillion, a significant increase of 720 billion yuan year-on-year compared with 3.58 trillion yuan last year, and the corresponding growth rate will slightly increase by 0.1 percentage point to 11.7% compared with the previous value. The new credit of 4.3 trillion yuan will reach a historical peak. While being confident that the credit “made a good start” in January, the agency expects the proportion of medium and long-term loans to increase and the credit structure to improve.
Driven by the issuance of local bonds, the market expects that the scale of social financing is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan in January.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) it is estimated that the new social finance in January was about 5.1 trillion yuan, basically the same as that in the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate of social finance was around 10.2%. Although it is hard to say strong, it has reflected the effectiveness of some stable growth policies. Specifically, the net issuance of corporate bonds in January is expected to be 444 billion yuan, slightly higher than 391.7 billion yuan in January last year; The net issuance of government bonds (government bonds + local bonds) was 697 billion yuan, significantly higher than 291.4 billion yuan in the same period last year. In addition, bill financing may be slightly lower or basically flat year-on-year.
The financial research center of BOCOM predicts that under the influence of local bond issuance and stock market IPO, the scale of new social financing in January may be about 5.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the level of the same period over the years; The stock of social finance is about 319.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 10.4%. Among them, in terms of equity financing, the capital market has been relatively active since the beginning of the year, especially the listing of China Mobile, leveraging the initial fund-raising amount of more than 100 billion yuan.
M2 growth reflecting broad liquidity is also expected to rebound.
Societe Generale research predicts that from the perspective of M1, M1 in the month where the Spring Festival is located over the years will decline significantly month on month. Although the Spring Festival in 2022 is in February, the Spring Festival holiday has begun in January. Therefore, the impact of cash leakage will be reflected at the end of January, driving M1 to fall significantly year-on-year in January. It is expected that M1 in January will increase by 0% year-on-year, down 3.5 percentage points from the previous month; From the perspective of M2, although the loans in January will continue to fall year-on-year, M2 is expected to rebound year-on-year due to the leading financial force and low year-on-year base. M2 is expected to increase by 9.2% year-on-year and 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.
