Jufeng investment adviser: high valuation heavyweights added to the decline, and the gem entered a technical bear market

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On Tuesday, A-shares fluctuated and retreated, with obvious differentiation: small cap stocks were relatively strong, heavyweights retreated sharply, the Shanghai index fell below 3400 points, and the gem index fell more than 4%. On the disk, tourism hotels, household light industry, coal, education, decoration, port shipping, jewelry, commercial department stores, diversified finance, insurance, banking and other industries led the increase; Energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, batteries, wind power equipment, semiconductors, wine making, medical treatment, electronic components and other industries led the decline. In terms of subject stocks, the growth of blind box economy, online tourism, Huawei shengteng, sponge City, electronic license sector, vocational education, rental and sale rights, state-owned assets cloud concept and digital currency ranked first, while the decline of blade battery, CRO, solid-state battery, sodium ion battery, MLCC, IGBT concept and automobile chip ranked first.

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A shares celebrate the beginning of the year of the tiger: the Shanghai index rose 2%

The three major A-share indexes opened high on the first trading day of the year of the tiger. As of the closing, the three indexes rose collectively, including the Shanghai index rose 2.03%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.96% and the gem index rose 0.31%. The market turnover reached about 820 billion yuan, and most of the industry sectors rose, led by engineering consulting services, mining industry and combustible ice concept. Northbound funds bought a net 5.552 billion yuan on the same day.

three departments: encourage leading iron and steel enterprises to implement merger and reorganization

The Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry and proposed to promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises. Encourage industry leading enterprises to implement merger and reorganization and build several world-class super large iron and steel enterprise groups. Relying on the advantageous enterprises in the industry, cultivate 1 ~ 2 professional pilot enterprises in stainless steel, special steel, seamless steel pipe, cast pipe and other fields respectively. Encourage cross regional and cross ownership mergers and acquisitions of iron and steel enterprises, change the "small scattered" situation of iron and steel industry in some regions, and enhance the endogenous driving force for enterprise development.

history is rare! The more you fall, the more you buy. In January, 56 billion yuan was used to get the bottom through ETF!

The A-share market had a poor performance at the beginning of 2022 and continued to fluctuate and fall, while some funds were looking for the layout direction. As a capital wind vane, the stock exchange open-end Index Fund (ETF) showed a net share growth as a whole. Based on the average transaction price of the range, more than 56 billion yuan net flowed into the stock ETF within one month.

Jufeng view

Medium term strategy:

Jufeng investment adviser believes that the liquidity at the macro level has been gradually improved, and the central bank has continuously cut reserve requirements and interest rates to release liquidity, indicating that the policy bottom has appeared; The medium-term market is expected to rise, but the construction of the market bottom is more complex and there is a time lag between the market bottom and the policy bottom. We should be more patient.

Pre market judgment: from the first trading day of the year of the tiger, the market has not yet come out of the adjustment of overvalued stocks, and undervalued blue chips are still sought after. Due to the immeasurable rebound and the correction of US stocks, it is expected that A-Shares will step back on Monday's rebound on Tuesday. If they can bottom up and release the trading volume, the market is expected to strengthen, otherwise they will continue to adjust.

In fact, the A-share index continued to differentiate after opening low in the morning. Small cap stocks performed strongly on the time-sharing chart, while heavyweights fell into adjustment. Lithium battery sectors such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) fell nearly 6%, while photovoltaic leaders such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) fell more than 4%. The U.S. Department of Commerce included 33 Chinese companies in the "unverified list", including Yaoming biology. In early trading, Hong Kong stocks of YaoMing biology fell 30%, H shares fell 27% and A-Shares fell by the limit, which led to the sharp decline of the cro sector, Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) . After 10 o'clock, the Shanghai index once turned red stimulated by the 7% rise of China Mobile, but then the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decline deepened and the Shanghai index turned down. The correction range of gem index has reached 20% from the high point in December 2021, entering a technical bear market.

Investment suggestions:

Before the Spring Festival, A-Shares were corrected continuously, and the overvalued track stocks and growth stocks were significantly adjusted. The undervalued blue chips reflected a certain defensive nature. The make-up decline of blue chips in the last week before the festival was a signal of accelerating bottom building. After the Spring Festival, the market liquidity will be improved, and the spring offensive will be officially launched. Although the stock index fell generally on Tuesday, nearly half of the stocks in the market rose. Don't be deceived by the index. Gem index into a technical bear market, short-term rebound will occur, can grasp short-term opportunities. It is suggested to allocate four sectors: state-owned assets reform, high annual growth, securities companies and oversold new shares.

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