Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. After the beginning of the year of the tiger, the quality of the market rebound remains to be verified, but with the support of many parties, the expected direction of steady growth continues to strengthen, and the market of relevant sectors may have been opened, which is still worth tracking.
On the second trading day of the year of the tiger, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened low. After the opening, finance and infrastructure continued to perform, boosting the Shanghai index. Under the influence of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) sharp decline, the gem fell by more than 2% in the session, reaching a new low adjusted since December last year. The Shenzhen composite index was also dragged down by the decline of the gem and returned to its pre holiday closing position. Specifically, the decline in the morning was mainly due to the killing of the index, while the performance of individual stocks was relatively eye-catching, at least half to half, which formed a strong contrast with the killing of individual stocks before the Spring Festival.
For the market, the structural market is still the main tone. First of all, this is because after the monetary easing cycle starts, the market as a whole is favorable to the stock market. However, under the downward pressure of the economy, the decline of corporate profits may encounter constraints and suppress the stock market. Therefore, under one good and one bad, the periodic and structural market or the main tone. That’s exactly the case. We see that even the once big rise in the year of the tiger is a differentiation of the market, not a general rise.
Back to the disk in the morning, it has been fully broken in terms of technology. At present, we can only wait for the oversold rebound. In terms of capital, despite the sharp rise yesterday, the trading volume of the two cities was only more than 800 billion, which was consistent with the level before the Spring Festival. Compared with the previous trillion transactions, it was indeed relatively depressed, which also showed that the market was still waiting in the short term. However, public funds continue to increase their positions before the Spring Festival. According to the Research Report of Anxin securities, the positions of active equity funds rose slightly in the week before the Spring Festival. The position measurement results based on net value showed that the positions of equity funds, hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds were 86.84%, 83.04% and 61.31% respectively, of which the positions of hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds increased by 0.5 percentage points and 1.51 percentage points respectively compared with the previous week. Therefore, when we look at the strength of the rebound, we should mainly focus on whether the trading volume can quickly recover to above trillion, and whether the technical side can stand firm on the 5-day moving average, or even quickly recover the annual line, otherwise the market will be repeated.
In terms of sectors, big finance, big infrastructure and high prosperity science and technology tracks are the directions that can be tracked in the rebound. Since December last year, the banking sector we have focused on reminding and tracking has continued to be strong. The core logic of the banking sector lies in the advantage of undervaluation and the boost and no rise expectation under the opening of the monetary easing cycle. In addition to the banking sector, the phased market of the large infrastructure sector should also be paid attention to under the main tone of steady growth.
Before the Spring Festival, market funds pay high attention to the infrastructure sector, and the logic behind this is mainly due to overseas deleveraging and insufficient domestic demand. The downward pressure on the economy is still large, and we have a strong demand for steady growth. Therefore, we can also see that before and after the Spring Festival, there are more official words about policies, and major projects around the country have also started construction. This year, the government’s efforts are characterized by early and large. On the one hand, they are working in advance and making early arrangements in order to achieve quick results. On the other hand, in January, the country issued 583.7 billion yuan of new local bonds, an increase of 221.4 billion yuan over the same period last year. Obviously, this is also adding leverage. In terms of specific funds, from the perspective of public offering positions, the proportion of positions in the building materials industry has rebounded since the fourth quarter of last year. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the proportion of positions in the public offering building materials industry was 1.51%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points over the previous quarter and 0.15 percentage points over the same period last year. According to the data of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , in the fourth quarter of 2021, a total of 43 building materials stocks entered the list of the top ten positions of public offering, and their holdings were concentrated in the leaders of subdivided industries. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, the infrastructure sector is still ready to move, while after the Spring Festival, it breaks out continuously. The core is the promotion of policies and funds under the tone of steady growth. Of course, it also has the advantage of undervaluation. Under this trend, the sustainability of building materials and other sectors can be expected, but it should not be limited to traditional infrastructure, You can also track the investment opportunities of new infrastructure such as green economy and high-end manufacturing that have not been started.
Therefore, although the year of the tiger has a good start, the quality of the rebound has yet to be verified, the market is still falling repeatedly, and the structural market is still relatively obvious. However, during the Spring Festival, the bottom of the monetary market is expected to recover, and the monetary policy is expected to stabilize or restore the market support during the Spring Festival. Continue to be optimistic about the spring market, which is still a good time for bargain hunting.
