A-share tiger year ushered in a “good start”, and the main stock indexes closed up across the board. Under the background of the “steady growth” policy, related sectors of the infrastructure industry chain led the rise; Driven by the rise in global commodity prices, resource stocks are also sought after by funds.
For the future market, some institutional people believe that “steady growth” will become the main line of medium and long-term investment. In addition to the traditional real estate infrastructure sector, the new infrastructure related sectors with high prosperity and in line with the long-term direction of the policy are also expected to usher in investment opportunities.
industry stocks showed a general rise
Data show that as of the closing on February 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.03%, recovering 3400 points to 3429.58; In contrast, the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index rose by only 0.96% and 0.31% respectively.
From the overall performance of the market, a total of 3503 stocks rose in Shanghai and Shenzhen yesterday, and various industry sectors showed a generally rising market. Among them, the large infrastructure industry chain benefiting from the “stable growth” policy is the main force driving the rise of the market. As of the closing on February 7, among the 31 Shenwan level industries, the building decoration industry led the increase of 5.99%, and the building materials, coal and steel industries all increased by more than 4%.
The highlight of the market on the first day after the festival is not only the large infrastructure industry chain. Due to the continuous rise of international oil prices during the Spring Festival, on February 7, the A-share petroleum and petrochemical industry ranked second in the Shenwan primary industry with an increase of 4.55%. Several stocks rose by the limit, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) rose by 9.16%, and its total market value of A-Shares approached the 1 trillion yuan mark.
In addition, some white horse stocks also stopped falling and stabilized under the boost of positive factors. On February 7, Byd Company Limited(002594) soared by 7.76%, with a total market value of 660 billion yuan.
Yesterday, the “smart money” northward capital also helped the A-share market. As of the closing on February 7, the net inflow of northbound funds throughout the day was 5.552 billion yuan, ending the net outflow of more than 10 billion yuan for two consecutive trading days. Since 2022, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has reached 22.326 billion yuan. However, it is worth noting that yesterday, the net inflow of funds from Shanghai Stock connect was 6.628 billion yuan, while the net outflow of funds from Shenzhen Stock connect was 1.076 billion yuan. The differentiated attitude of northbound funds towards Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is also exactly consistent with the performance of the two markets.
differences in institutional views
At present, there are also some differences between institutions on whether the A-share market will regain its rise.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Zhang Xia, chief strategist, believes that the market is expected to rebound locally around the stable growth expectation of new and old infrastructure and the direction of independent prosperity. However, at present, there is a deviation between China and the United States monetary policy. Historically, under the background of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the pressure of capital outflow is still one of the negative factors affecting a shares. In addition, January bond issuance data and real estate high-frequency trading data show that financing demand has not yet rebounded significantly. Therefore, the market will continue to bottom after the rebound and wait for a new inflection point signal.
Some insiders believe that many recent market indicators can confirm that A-Shares may still be in the bottom period. First, from the perspective of transaction scale, the total transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets yesterday was 824.28 billion yuan, less than 5 billion yuan more than the last trading day before the festival. The trading volume did not increase significantly with the general rise of the market. Since January 21, the daily transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in seven trading days has been less than 1 trillion yuan; Second, the average net outflow in the two trading days before the northbound capital Festival exceeded 10 billion yuan, showing an unstable trend of large in and large out as a whole.
Zhang Junxiao, chief strategist at Guosheng securities, believes that there is no need to be pessimistic about the equity market in the future, and the year of the tiger market may open. The risk appetite of overseas markets has warmed up, and the impact of external factors has been basically released; With the recent implementation of the central bank’s interest rate and reserve requirement reduction policies, macro liquidity has been further abundant; The amount of public offering has stabilized and rebounded since mid January, and the lack of incremental funds in the short term is expected to be alleviated; Historical experience shows that the market risk appetite has improved significantly after the Spring Festival, and the overall performance of A-Shares is not poor.
unanimously optimistic about the main line of “steady growth”
Although there are different views on how to interpret the future market, the reporter found that all securities companies are optimistic about the configuration value of the main line of “stable growth”.
Zhang Junxiao believes that the short-term market style may enter the balance period, and in the medium term, “steady growth” will be the main line of the quarterly level. Three layout clues are recommended: first, high-quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers, buildings and building materials; Second, the new direction of digital infrastructure is to benefit from the development of digital economy; Third, home appliances with reversed upstream costs, as well as airlines and airports benefiting from the opening-up policy.
Li qiusuo, executive general manager of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) research department, believes that the market of relevant sectors benefiting from the expected boost of policies is expected to continue to perform, and the industries related to financial development, including infrastructure and real estate related industrial chains (construction, building materials, home appliances, home appliances, etc.) may continue to perform well. In addition, in addition to the traditional infrastructure direction, new infrastructure related industries with high industrial prosperity and in line with the long-term objectives of the policy, such as power grid industrial chain, are also expected to usher in investment opportunities.
According to the order of “steady growth” and the marginal improvement of profitability, Chen Xian Shun, chief strategist of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, recommended four main lines of layout: first, the direction of pigs, household appliances, furniture, tourism, Baijiu and other supporting businesses with negative results. Second, building materials, construction and power operation in the field of infrastructure; Third, securities companies and banks in the financial field; Fourth, consumer electronics.
