On the first trading day of the lunar year of the tiger, the A-share market made a good start as scheduled. The three major stock indexes rose collectively, and the Shanghai stock index rose by more than 2%. From the perspective of contribution to the index, traditional infrastructure sectors such as building materials, building decoration and steel have performed prominently, and relevant stocks have set off a wave of limit trading, becoming an important force leading the upward attack of the index. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 2.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.96%, the gem index rose 0.31%, and more than 3500 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose.
In terms of capital, the net inflow of funds from the north is 5.552 billion yuan, of which the net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect is 6.628 billion yuan and the net sale of funds from Shenzhen Stock connect is 1.076 billion yuan.
petroleum, steel and coal led the increase
The oil and gas exploitation and service sector performed particularly strongly yesterday. Petrochina Company Limited(601857) rose by more than 9%, and many stocks such as Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) , China Petroleum Engineering Corporation(600339) , Xinjiang Beiken Energy Engineering Co.Ltd(002828) , Geo-Jade Petroleum Corporation(600759) rose by the limit.
On the news side, the sharp rise in oil prices during the Spring Festival has strongly stimulated the stock prices of relevant stocks. Data show that the main contract of WTI crude oil futures rose sharply from January 31 to February 4. The main contract once reached US $93.17 and the settlement price was US $92.31 on Friday, breaking through US $90 for the first time since 2014.
For the reasons for the sharp rise in international oil prices, analysts believe that, on the one hand, the market is worried that bad weather will affect the shale oil exploitation in Texas, a major oil producer in the United States; On the other hand, some OPEC member states are difficult to achieve the current monthly production target, and lack of idle capacity required to further increase production, which also worsens the gap between crude oil supply and demand.
Steel and coal sectors also led the gains. In the coal sector, Yankuang energy, China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) rose by more than 7%, and Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , China Coal Xinji Energy Co.Ltd(601918) , Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) rose by more than 5%. In the steel sector, Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) and other stocks rose by more than 6%.
In terms of news, recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry, which proposed to encourage industry leading enterprises to implement merger and reorganization and build a number of world-class super large iron and steel enterprise groups.
Institutional people believe that under the background of steady growth of infrastructure, construction in relevant fields is expected to be faster than in previous years, and steel consumption may be started in advance. On the whole, the marginal improvement of steel fundamentals after the festival is expected to be strong, the center of gravity of steel prices may gradually rise, and the profits of steel mills are expected to gradually recover.
the infrastructure sector performed strongly
When it comes to steady growth, investors are most likely to think of the traditional infrastructure field. Corresponding to the disk, the traditional infrastructure sector has undoubtedly become the most powerful variety of A-Shares at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
Divided by Shenwan level, since December 2021, the overall growth of the two major industries of building decoration and building materials has reached 10.98% and 8.49% respectively, ranking the top two in all industries, and the larger market has achieved very obvious excess returns.
“Chinese prefix” infrastructure stocks had a strong trend yesterday, Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Haisum Engineering Co.Ltd(002116) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) and other stocks rose by the limit. China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) since December last year, the cumulative increase has exceeded 40%, and the latest market value has exceeded 160 billion yuan. The 100 billion capital construction leaders such as China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) increased by more than 10% in the same period.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that the stable growth chain represented by real estate, construction and banks has low valuations, stock prices and fund positions. Benefiting from the force of stable growth, the fundamentals have ushered in marginal improvement and have comparative advantages.
Compared with the continuous strength of the traditional infrastructure sector, the recent stock price performance of new infrastructure directions such as green economy and high-end manufacturing is slightly hesitant, which may be related to the relative position of the sector valuation. However, with the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, the new infrastructure sector has also begun to be sought after with funds in the near future.
Yesterday, the green power sector rebounded sharply, and the share price of the leading Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) with a market value of 100 billion rose by the limit; The concept of digital economy rose again, China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) and others increased by more than 2%. New infrastructure sectors such as artificial intelligence, UHV and industrial Internet showed signs of stabilization yesterday, and leading companies generally performed well.
From this point of view, the “old infrastructure” sector continues to make efforts, the “new infrastructure” sector has followed up, and the A-share market funds have quietly reached a consensus on the main line of steady growth.
Low valuation plus policy support makes traditional infrastructure sectors such as building materials and housing construction regarded as the “direction with the least resistance” by funds. However, with the valuation repair in the past period of time, the follow-up of the main line of steady growth needs to be further observed.
digital economy is expected to continue to develop
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) the macro team recently released several research reports to continuously focus on the main line of stable growth. In its view, due to the structural changes in China’s economic momentum, the starting point of steady growth will also switch.
Zhang Wenlang, chief Macro Analyst, said that an important background of this round of steady growth is that the driving force of China’s economic growth is undergoing a switch, that is, total factor productivity will become an important driving force for China’s economic development, and scientific and technological innovation will become the most important support for the improvement of total factor productivity.
In Zhang Wenlang’s view, investment and related economic activities in the field of scientific and technological innovation will become the most important driving force for China’s development in the future. The starting point of steady growth will change from “mainly relying on infrastructure real estate” to a diversified model of “infrastructure + real estate + innovation”. In this context, green economy, digital economy and manufacturing upgrading may become an important starting point for stable growth in the future.
Wu Kaida, chief strategist at deppon securities, stressed that the steady growth performance of digital economy is not weaker than that of traditional infrastructure. “From the perspective of contribution to GDP, the digital economy has taken the lead in infrastructure investment in 2015 and become the core driving force driving macroeconomic growth.” Wu Kaida said.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the fixed income team believes that “focusing on both new and old infrastructure” will be the main measure for policy development and stable growth, and the 5g, data center, industrial Internet and other fields included in the new infrastructure will become the potential direction of high growth.
spring market or gradually open
According to the market data of institutions over the years, the market in spring often rose significantly in February. The new year outlook report of securities companies shows that most institutions are optimistic about the market performance in the future.
Galaxy Securities believes that the market correction has released certain risks, and the valuation of A-Shares has fallen to a lower position. After investor sentiment stabilizes, the spring market driven by the main line of steady growth may gradually open.
Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) suggested to grasp the three main lines of the spring Market: first, the market with wide currency and wide credit will continue to increase, and the market with stable growth will continue to deduce; Second, the high boom of some high-quality growth stocks is still supported by fundamentals. The market began to reflect the expectations of the first quarter report, and a rebound was ushered in after the fundamentals were further verified; Third, some consumer varieties greatly affected by the epidemic are expected to continue to recover.
