Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, as the first trading day of the year of the tiger, A-shares welcomed the “good start”, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. The three major indexes opened higher in the morning, but then performed differently. The Shanghai index opened high and walked high, maintaining a high shock pattern throughout the day, while the gem index fell after the high opening, diving for a time and turning red again near the end of the day. Despite twists and turns, the three major indexes closed red in the end, and the overall trend was gratifying.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the A-shares adjusted continuously before the festival, and the market ushered in the correction on the first day of the year of the tiger. The direction is mainly focused on the blue chip direction of the market, is expected to enter the period of easing the shock in the short term, the superimposed trading volume has not been effectively amplified, and the quality of the market rebound still needs to wait and see . The decline of the market before the festival released the risk factors such as the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the epidemic situation, and the risk of market valuation differentiation has also been digested to a certain extent.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the Shanghai index rebounded strongly on Monday, and more than 3500 shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen were popular. During the Spring Festival, the peripheral markets stabilized and warmed up. In addition, the post holiday policies are expected to exert force, driving the market to stabilize. Considering that the current overall A-share valuation is reasonable, coupled with the net inflow of funds from the north to boost market confidence, it is expected that the market is expected to continue to stabilize and rebound, and pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line and the rotation of the sector . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, steel, household appliances, building materials, building decoration and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that although the Shanghai index rose significantly on Monday, the trading volume of the two cities has not been amplified synchronously and effectively. It still needs to be verified whether the Shanghai index can build a phased bottom near 3350 in the future. it is expected that the short-term shock of the Shanghai index around 3400 points is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely . Investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in engineering construction, cement and building materials and some cycle industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that after the festival, in the empty window period of “substantial interest rate hike” by the Federal Reserve, China’s steady growth policies such as RRR reduction, savings force, social finance and other indicators stabilize, the market may open a “spring market”. At the same time, considering the benefits of comprehensive registration system and steady growth on undervalued blue chips, the potential suppression of high valuation by the “hawks” of the Federal Reserve, and the strength and non record low of undervalued blue chips such as SSE 50 during the adjustment in January, we believe that the market after Festival is still the main line of blue chips .
In terms of specific configuration, the agency further analyzed that undervalued blue chips still adhere to three lines : 1) securities companies; 2) Central enterprises with high dividends related to national reform, especially the development direction of central finance such as railway and electric power; 3) Green electricity. At the same time, some drugs related to the epidemic, such as ventilator and vaccine, have also entered the allocation range.
Cinda Securities pointed out that February is the month with the highest winning rate of Q1 every year. There is a stable growth environment this year. The performance forecast period in January has also ended, and the winning rate in February is also good . Strategically, after this adjustment, the whole a (non-financial petroleum and petrochemical) Pb quantile decreased from 72% to 45%. The valuation is reasonable, but it is not very cheap. Steady growth is advancing, but it will take time to change the increasingly cautious profit concerns. Although China’s macro interest rate has been declining, the micro capital environment is general. Therefore, strategic issues still need some time to digest. February is still a tactical monthly rebound.
In addition, Guosheng securities mentioned that compared with the new infrastructure, the traditional infrastructure has more valuation advantages. Under the current structural market of stock game, its investment value may become more prominent. In the future, we can focus on the sustainability of this sector. In terms of operation, should abandon high to low, avoid poor performance stocks, grasp the layout opportunity of securities companies, infrastructure, large consumption and other sectors, or make a good choice under the current market .
In terms of operational strategy, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that with the gradual disclosure of the effect of policy force, the strengthening of the attraction of China’s capital market under overseas fluctuations, and the gradual recovery of investor sentiment after the festival, we don’t think we need to be too pessimistic about the A-share market as a whole. it is suggested to pay attention to the following main lines in the next 3-6 months: 1) the main line of “steady growth” is expected to continue; 2) Pay attention to relevant industries with performance disclosure exceeding expectations and business recovery superimposed with undervalued buffer; 3) Manufacturing growth is still the main line of annual revenue .
YueKai Securities pointed out that in terms of allocation ideas: first, the consumer sector is expected to usher in a double-click market driven by valuation performance. Under the economic background of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, boosting consumption in 2022 is expected to become an important starting point, and more industrial policy support is expected to be obtained in terms of consumption upgrading and market sinking. During the Spring Festival, some consumption data pick up, and the profitability of the consumer sector is likely to be improved in 2022. Under the low base effect, the performance elasticity is high, and the valuation end is expected to be significantly repaired under the boost of policies and prosperity.
Second, focus on investment opportunities in sectors such as infrastructure and new energy related to steady growth . In the near future, we can pay attention to the real estate, building materials, household appliances and other industries in the infrastructure chain. In the stage of steady growth and remarkable effect, we can pay attention to the investment direction that is expected to improve the non relative profit growth, and the energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions supported by high-quality transformation and development.
third, pay attention to the investment opportunities in the sector exceeding the expectations in the annual report. As of the end of January, the performance prediction rate of A-Shares had reached 57.88%, with a total of 1473 enterprises, including many enterprises in basic chemical, electronics, medicine, biology and mechanical equipment industries. Measured by the consistent expected net profit, the performance of individual stocks exceeded the expectations. The over expected individual stocks are mainly distributed in industries such as medicine and biology, electronics, basic chemical industry, power equipment and mechanical equipment. In addition, the over expected individual stocks account for a relatively high proportion in industries such as non bank finance, beauty care, environmental protection, medicine and biology and power equipment.
