Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Dongguan Securities: under the guidance of the 14th five year plan, 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery
The proportion of short distance travel in the spring festival tourism market has further increased, the passenger flow of Spring Festival transportation has increased significantly, and the impact of the epidemic has been gradually reduced. Guided by the 14th five year plan, 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the leading outbound tourists Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) benefiting from the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism; Recommended franchisees account for a relatively high proportion of chain hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) with stable performance, and artificial scenic spot leaders Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) with large performance flexibility. They are expected to benefit from Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) of the Winter Olympic effect in the short term. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the worst time of fundamentals has passed, and the preferred layout is waiting for the flowers to bloom
Although the short-term epidemic continues to repeat and there is still pressure, investors now expect a "marginal improvement" in the epidemic prevention and control situation after March, and the worst moment of the industry has passed. Based on the uncertainty of repeated short-term epidemic and the positive expectation of stabilizing the midline epidemic, based on the dimension of 3-6 months, slightly repeat the Su logic, give consideration to performance, valuation and theme, and optimize Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , hellens, jiumaojiu, Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Huazhu group-s, Baisheng China, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) . Based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, we suggest to continue to be based on the high-quality leader of the boom sub circuit, and focus on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , hellens, Huazhu group-s, jiumaojiu, Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , yum China-s, Haidilao, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Naixue's tea, etc. []
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : China's tourism industry does not change the recovery trend, and the fundamentals of Companies in the industry are continuously repaired
Judging from the repeated regional epidemics in China, it is suggested to grasp the phased market. China's long-term trend will continue to be firm in clearing cases, strictly preventing overseas imports, accelerating vaccination and research and development of multiple vaccines, and realizing mass immunization as soon as possible. During the Spring Festival, the Winter Olympic Games were held in Zhangjiakou, Beijing. The government continued to take strict covid-19 prevention and control measures, and the restrictions on international flights were extended to at least the first half of this year. China's tourism industry continued to circulate internally, and the flow of outbound tourists continued to be transformed into Chinese tourism. China's tourism industry does not change the recovery trend, and the recovery process is repeatedly disturbed with the possible local epidemic. During this period, with theme investment and hot investment hotspots, the fundamentals of Companies in the industry showed continuous repair. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) . []
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : driven by the "Winter Olympics effect", the popularity of ice and snow tourism is rising
From the perspective of tourism types, local spring festival tours and return to hometown peripheral tours are still the main body. Qunar data show that as of 10 a.m. on February 6, the proportion of short-distance and suburban tourists has reached more than 70%. Ctrip data show that more than 80% of tourists choose to visit scenic spots locally during the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, and the ticket proportion of scenic spots in the province is as high as 82%. Driven by the "Winter Olympics effect", the popularity of ice and snow tourism is rising. According to the big data of the same journey, during the Spring Festival, the orders of ice and snow scenic spots across the country increased by 68% compared with the same period last year. Qunar data show that the number of tickets sold in the platform ski resort has doubled compared with last year's Spring Festival holiday. According to the data of flying pig, the orders of goods related to ice and snow tourism in the Spring Festival increased by more than 30% year-on-year. According to the big data of hornet's nest, cities rich in ice and snow resources are hot. Beijing, the "city of double Olympics", ranks first among cities. The average increase in search heat such as "ice and snow" and "skiing" in Beijing is higher than 215%.
Driven by the superposition of local New Year holidays and returning home for the new year, local hotels are hot. According to the same journey data, local hotel reservations account for 46% during the Spring Festival; Qunar platform data show that the hotel reservation volume of Spring Festival in 2022 is nearly four times that of 2021, and the main increment comes from the demand of "residential hotels"; According to the data of Ctrip platform, as of February 5, the search popularity of hotels during the Spring Festival increased by 81% year-on-year, and the order volume of local hotels accounted for 60%. Based on the accommodation function, the hotel combined with catering and surrounding scenic spots to provide all-round services such as living, playing, eating and saving. "Residential hotel" has become a new choice for people to enjoy the atmosphere of the Spring Festival and receive their returning relatives. From the perspective of city level, driven by returning groups, the demand for hotels in low-level cities has increased significantly. According to Ctrip data, as of February 5, the proportion of accommodation customers from third, fourth and fifth tier cities during the Spring Festival increased by 13% year-on-year, 34% year-on-year compared with 2019, 30% year-on-year increase in order volume, and the order volume of rural hotels more than doubled compared with the same period last year. In addition, in January, pmi50 The demand for hotels continued to decline for three consecutive months, although it was slightly higher than that of the ring line. []
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) : the tourism market recovered weakly during the Spring Festival holiday! Allocate from the two dimensions of short-term marginal recovery + medium and long-term competitiveness
During the Spring Festival holiday, the tourism market recovered weakly month on month, and the overall consumption expenditure of residents maintained a steady growth. According to the data of the Ministry of culture, tourism and tourism, 137 million people traveled in China in the first three days of the holiday, which recovered to 71.5% in the same period of the Spring Festival in 2019 according to a comparable standard. The recovery rate was weak compared with 70% in the golden week of November 2021. This was mainly due to the repeated epidemic in many parts of the country since January 2022, and the travel of provinces and cities such as Beijing and Zhejiang was limited. Population mobility has increased, and the overall consumption expenditure of residents is expected to maintain a steady growth. According to Netcom data, in the five days before the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the Netcom platform handled 6.236 billion inter agency online payment transactions, with an amount of 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 11.6%.
In terms of investment suggestions, the marginal recovery trend of the tourism market during the Spring Festival holiday has emerged, and the growth rate of social consumption may increase under the background of increased population mobility. Reiterate the view of industry strategy in 2022. With the continuous promotion of covid-19 vaccine & specific drugs and the transformation of epidemic prevention policy to precise regulation, the marginal improvement trend of offline consumer service industry is clear. It is suggested to allocate it from the two dimensions of short-term marginal recovery + medium and long-term competitiveness, focusing on tax exemption ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ), hotels ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group-s), catering (jiumaojiu) Scenic spots and related equipment ( Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) ).
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Wanlian Securities: China's tax-free market has great potential, and the performance of tax-free leader this year is expected
The Spring Festival Golden Week in 2022 ended, and the scattered outbreak of the epidemic in many places before the festival disturbed the recovery process of the consumer industry, but there are still some highlights in the Spring Festival data of various industries. The tourism industry is affected by the call of "local Chinese New Year" in many places, and public travel is blocked. During the Spring Festival holiday, the number of Chinese tourists and China's tourism revenue both fell slightly year-on-year, putting pressure on tourism and scenic spots in the short term. However, the opening of the Winter Olympics, as promised, ignited the ice and snow economy and created a new growth point for the tourism industry. With the significant results of epidemic prevention and control, China's tourism market has partially warmed up, which is worthy of continuous attention. The tax-free industry has made a good start. Under the influence of overseas consumption return and tax-free policy dividends, Hainan's tax-free sales performance is bright. China's tax-free market has great potential, and the performance of the tax-free leader this year can be expected. []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : the demand for local travel, peripheral travel and short-distance self driving travel during the Spring Festival in 2022 is still strong
Local / peripheral tourism continues to dominate the cultural tourism market in the Spring Festival, and the demand is developing in depth. With the repeated outbreaks in many places before the festival, the long-distance cultural tourism market is cold. The demand for local tourism, peripheral tourism and short-distance self driving tourism during the Spring Festival in 2022 is still strong. According to tuniu data, Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other provinces are the most popular peripheral tourism destinations. On January 20, according to the data of flying pig, local and surrounding tours accounted for nearly 60% of the Spring Festival travel orders. As peripheral tourism continues to dominate the cultural tourism market, and consumers need to adjust their travel planning according to the dynamics of the epidemic. Relevant tourism themes are becoming more and more diverse. With the reduction of the scale of local or nearby tourism teams, the increase of experience projects, the innovation of tourism playing methods and the extension of travel days, tourists can experience in-depth tourism without going far. The 2022 Spring Festival peripheral tour shows the characteristics that the user decision-making cycle is shorter than the previous Spring Festival (the travel plan needs to be made 15-30 days in advance), and "Hotel +" is the trend of micro vacation in recent two years. According to tuniu data, 28% of the total number of tourists travel during the Spring Festival in 1-3 days, and 33% of the total number of tourists travel in 4-6 days. According to Ctrip data, as of February 5, the orders of local hotels accounted for about 60%. It is expected that the orders of hot spring, parent-child and other theme hotels will account for 55% and 12% of the total orders respectively during the Spring Festival. []
East Asia Qianhai Securities: optimistic about the relatively clear recovery trend of the tax-free industry supported by the recovery of passenger flow
During the Spring Festival, major duty-free operators seized the opportunity of the spring festival tourism peak and actively launched preferential activities + upgraded their service quality. The duty-free industry flourished and continued to help achieve the goal of 100 billion yuan. For the Spring Festival holiday, China duty free, Sanya sea travel duty-free City, Haikong global boutique duty-free City, China Service Sanya International duty-free shopping park and Shenzhen duty-free Haikou Mission Hills duty-free city have launched discount packages. Among them, the 600 yuan coupon launched by China free includes 100 yuan high-quality non threshold voucher, 50 yuan Xianghua non threshold voucher and full reduction voucher. It has rich preferential modes and types of preferential products, and the preferential intensity is large. Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival, Hainan's 10 outlying island duty-free stores continuously enriched the consumption scene of the outlying island duty-free new year by introducing limited new products in the year of the tiger and flash shopping of star items.
In order to cope with the restriction of epidemic prevention and control, Hainan also launched online "Spring Festival special area", including Hainan health code, epidemic situation bulletin, electronic certificates and other service modules. WeChat, Alipay's small programs and Hai Yi APP have "Spring Festival special area", facilitated and promoted the one-stop shopping and tourism demand of foreign tourists in Hainan during the Spring Festival.
We believe that during the Spring Festival, the major duty-free operators have made great efforts to create new year consumption scenes, launch concessions and introduce products, and continuously improve their service quality. At the same time, Hainan has continuously designed and launched a convenient and fast online platform for epidemic prevention and control, so as to promote the more rapid development of the tax-free industry on outlying islands, It is expected to form a continuous boost to the tax-free industry in Hainan to achieve the sales target of 100 billion.
In terms of investment suggestions, tax-free industry: we are optimistic about the relatively clear recovery trend of tax-free industry under the support of passenger flow recovery. Related targets are China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) which is expected to show a recovery in revenue and profit after the recovery of passenger flow. Hotel Industry: the upgrading of industry structure and chain trend are obvious, the brand, scale and management advantages of leading hotel groups are obvious, and there is good growth space in the future. Related targets include leading enterprises Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , and Huazhu group. Catering and Tourism: the recovery of the industry under the epidemic is under short-term pressure, and the trend of industry chain is obvious. Pay attention to the expansion and business performance of leading catering enterprises. The relevant targets include seabed fishing, sipping and sipping. []
