The dollar index rose significantly, the interest rate gap between China and the United States continued to narrow, the Ted interest rate gap widened, and China’s capital was relaxed first and then tightened. The US dollar index rose significantly last week (20220124-20220128). As of January 25, 2022, the net long position of US dollar increased slightly. The interest rate gap between China and the United States continued to narrow, and the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds rose first and then fell. What is implied behind it is that inflation expectations rebounded again. Overseas, Ted interest rate spread has widened, but it remains low, and the financial liquidity in the United States is still abundant; For China, inter-bank funds were relaxed first and then tightened, liquidity stratification intensified first and then eased, and term interest margin (10y-1y) continued to widen. In terms of transaction heat, the transaction heat of most industries has decreased, and only the media is still at a relatively high level in history; The volatility of computer, media, light industry, commerce and retail, coal, non bank and other sectors increased relatively greatly; In terms of research, electronics, nonferrous metals, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, banking, computer, building materials and other sectors rank first.
Northbound trading is the main selling force of northbound. Last week (20220124-20220128), the northbound allocation market bought a net 1.968 billion yuan and the northbound trading market sold a net 21.304 billion yuan. On a daily basis, northbound configuration / trading orders are bought first and then sold, and the selling range of trading orders is large. In the industry, the differences between the trading sector and the configuration sector have increased. The consensus is to net buy electric power and public utilities, military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and other industries, while net sell new power, medicine, communication, steel, automobile and other industries. In terms of style, the configuration / trading sector net sells the large market growth and medium / small market value sector, and slightly buys the small market growth, while there are differences in the large market value / medium market growth sector. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation disk, the allocation disk sold Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 1.173 billion yuan, 841 million yuan and 436 million yuan respectively. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the media, nonferrous metals, transportation and other sectors. It is worth mentioning that Beishang Chinese capital sold net for five consecutive days, mainly in medicine, food and beverage, Dianxin, computer, electronics, machinery, nonferrous metals and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions continued to fall, hitting a low since 2014. Last week (20220124-20220127), Liangrong sold 28.1 billion yuan, only buying textile and clothing sectors, mainly selling computers, electronics, new electronics, medicine, food and beverage, military industry, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and other sectors. Only banks, building materials, steel, nonferrous metals, light industry and other sectors accounted for an increase in the proportion of financing purchases, and the proportion of financing purchases of each sector was at a historical low. In terms of style, Liangrong net sells all kinds of style sectors.
Public offering positions rebounded slightly, individual investors continued to “bargain hunting”, and wide-based ETFs mainly held by institutions were gradually redeemed. Last week (20220124-20220128), the A-share position of the active partial stock fund rebounded slightly. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its positions in the sectors of medicine, food and beverage, TMT, automobile, machinery, power and utilities, coal and construction, and mainly reduced its positions in the sectors of consumer services, power innovation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, military industry and chemical industry. Last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were net subscribed first and then continuously redeemed. Among them, broad-based ETFs began to be net redeemed; ETFs mainly held by individuals are continuously net subscribed, which means that individual investors may continue to “bottom” funds. Among them, ETFs related to financial and real estate, medicine, science and technology, media and other sectors are mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to high-end manufacturing sectors are net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individual) is to buy medicine, TMT, cycle and other sectors, while there are differences in financial, real estate, new energy and other sectors. For trend traders, both Ronghe and northbound trading chose to sell most industries. Overall, the overall divergence of the current market has further expanded, and all kinds of investors have a relatively high degree of consensus on buying only in the power and utility sectors. It is worth mentioning that, on the one hand, while electronics, machinery, construction, building materials, real estate, non silver, food and beverage, nonferrous metals, media, light industry, etc. are sold by trend traders, northbound allocation and active partial stock funds are jointly increasing positions in the above sectors, which means that the overall allocation direction of the market may still be vague, The “steady growth” sector and some growth sectors were selected to increase their positions by northward allocation / active partial stock funds at the same time; On the other hand, while the banking, chemical and other sectors were sold by the active partial stock funds and two financing, the long-term funds represented by the northward allocation sector still chose to buy the above sectors.
Risk tip: measurement error.
