Key investment points
February allocation view: the index can be repaired
Review: our view in January was that we should be positive. We believed that the market’s sensitivity to the epidemic situation decreased significantly, and the risk appetite may stabilize after falling to an extreme low in history. Afterwards, the risk appetite was extremely depressed in January, and the proportion of financing transactions has reached the lowest value since 2014. At the index level, the market adjusted comprehensively in January. The medium and small cap indexes such as CSI 1000, gem and CSI 500 all fell by more than 10%, while the large cap indexes such as Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 100 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 also fell by more than 6%. At the industry level, except for banks, the whole line fell, military industry and medicine fell by more than 15%, 11 industry indexes fell by more than 10%, and real estate, infrastructure and other industries were relatively resistant to decline. Our gold stock portfolio fell 7.69% in January. Since its establishment in February 2017, the cumulative portfolio return of China Thailand gold stock portfolio has been 234.8%, which is 200.1% compared with the excess return of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among the gold stock portfolio in January, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (+ 9.60%), satellite Chemistry (+ 4.92%), etc.
There are two main factors behind the market adjustment in January, which are underestimated by the market. Double market, there are two factors behind the market adjustment in January, which are underestimated by the market. One is the underestimation of the risk of A shares and overseas equity risks. The Fed’s hawkish degree exceeds expectations, which has led to the overseas market’s anticipation of the 22 year shrinkage, and the US bond yield has been rising rapidly. NASDAQ and S & P 500 have broken positions one after another, and the pressure of technical adjustment has basically reproduced the situation in March of 20 years; The second is the underestimation of behavioral finance in China’s market. Since the beginning of December, the new energy track stocks represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) began to adjust under the expected impact of the dual carbon policy, and then there was the style conversion under the policy adjustment and mean value regression. Institutional position adjustment triggered panic selling. After the trend of a large number of strong stocks went bad, the operation of some quantitative funds further amplified the elasticity of index decline.
The recent adjustment may be mainly due to the panic market and the net outflow of hedge funds. According to the data disclosed in the fourth quarterly report of the fund, the median stock position of all partial equity funds as of December 31, 2001 was 89%. As of January 28, the median rise and fall of the net value of partial equity funds since this year is – 10.3%, and the median rise and fall of the net value of partial equity funds in the top 5% is – 0.31%. Most of the corresponding fund product names are financial and real estate High dividend category and value category. From the perspective of fund net value and index performance, it can be roughly judged that public funds are not the main source of this round of position adjustment, and the net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 16.7 billion since this year. Considering that the market adjustment in January is mainly concentrated in the last week, superimposed with the capital pressure brought by the approaching Spring Festival, the recent adjustment may be mainly due to the panic and the net outflow of hedge funds.
The release of short-term panic, closely follow the main line of policy and actively allocate. During the Spring Festival, there are three major changes in overseas markets. First, the UK interest rate hike triggered an upward rise in global bond yields. Second, the oil price soared, and the WTI crude oil price exceeded $90. Third, the lower than expected performance of Facebook led to the adjustment of NASDAQ again. Looking ahead, under the background of the interest rate hike cycle, the US bond yield may continue to rise for a certain space during the year, but the probability of rapid rise in a short time has been greatly reduced. It is difficult to see more than expected factors before the FOMC meeting in late March, which will bring breathing opportunities to the equity market at least in the festival. As far as China is concerned, market sentiment has been at the historical freezing point. Under the background of stable growth and loose liquidity policies, we remain optimistic about the future market. After the release of short-term panic, the index may have strong room for repair. In terms of allocation ideas, we propose to actively layout the two main lines of “steady growth” and “specialization and innovation” closely followed by policies.
