Core summary
Biomedicine: the 14th five year plan for the pharmaceutical industry was released to accelerate industrial development. In 2021, the total revenue of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 2928.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.10%; The total profit was 627.140 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.90%. On January 30, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of science and technology and other nine departments jointly issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of pharmaceutical industry. The plan proposes that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of operating revenue and total profit of the pharmaceutical industry will remain above 8%, and the proportion of added value in all industries will increase to about 5%. During this period, the R & D investment of the whole industry increased by more than 10% annually. At the same time, the plan also puts forward the objectives of stable and controllable industrial chain supply chain, continuous enhancement of supply guarantee capacity, systematic improvement of manufacturing level and overall acceleration of international development.
New consumption: consumption recovery is slow. 1) Education industry: maintain a cautious attitude as a whole, and the opportunities mainly come from individual stocks. It is recommended to pay attention to New Oriental online. K9 discipline business is stripped, and resources are inclined to university adult business, which is expected to achieve strong growth. At the same time, the company actively transforms to institutions and live broadcasting. The underlying logic is that the brand, human and material resources of New Oriental and Yu Minhong are still strong. 2) Liquor, tourism and Catering: the repeated epidemic has brought short-term uncertainty, but the promotion of vaccination and covid-19 specific drug research and development has brought recovery expectations. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation and business data restoration brought by the recovery of catering and tourism in the middle line. 3) Pet and beauty care: the policy of medical and beauty industry is becoming stricter, and the market is in the period of emotional digestion. In the medium and long term, with the improvement of consumers’ recognition of domestic products and the strength of domestic products, domestic cosmetics leaders will continue to increase their penetration.
Food and beverage: the growth rate of food manufacturing is flat, and the price of famous wine is obvious. In December, the added value of China’s food manufacturing industry increased by 9.1% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the added value of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry increased by 11.9% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In December, the total retail sales of Enterprises above the designated size of beverage was 24.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, an increase of 26.0% over the same period in 2019. In January, Moutai’s price fixing strategy continued to fall, and the price of famous liquor remained high. The wholesale price of Baijiu liquor was higher than that of the general index. In December, China’s Beer Enterprises above Designated Size produced 2.358 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% and a decrease of 2.6% compared with the same period in 2019. The beer production showed an upward trend. The latest data show that on January 19, the average price of fresh milk in China’s main producing areas was 4.27 yuan / kg, which is still at an all-time high, and the raw material cost pressure of dairy production enterprises is still large.
Risk warning: (Medicine) policy risk; R & D risk; Market risk.
(new consumption) macroeconomic weakness risk; Long term risk of epidemic prevention and control in China; Industry competition intensifies risks.
(food) the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations; Fluctuation of raw materials; Industry competition intensifies.
