Key points of the report:
① private enterprises have become an important component of a shares, with partial growth, excellent efficiency and many incentives. Since 2020, the stock price of high-quality private enterprises has been shining. ② The handover of founders of private enterprises needs attention, and will enter an intensive replacement period in the next few years. ③ The shift handover methods include inheritance within the family and external managers. After the second generation takes over, the business tends to be diversified, and the business tends to be concentrated after the professional managers take over. ④ The capital market is cautious about the founder’s retirement. The share price fell in the year of handover, and then returned to the fundamentals. On the whole, the professional managers have better business performance, or due to certain supervision and incentive. ⑤ External investors should focus on corporate governance to reduce the risk of intergenerational inheritance. Although the ability of successors is the most critical, it cannot be described in time and effectively. Perfect corporate governance will help to reduce the risk. ⑥ Build the evaluation system of corporate governance level, select 8 indicators from the aspects of equity, incentive and board of directors, and quantitatively evaluate the governance level of listed private enterprises.
Text summary
Corporate portrait of a shareholders: an important subject of the market, with partial growth, excellent efficiency and many incentives. ① Private enterprises have become an important component of a shares, accounting for the largest proportion of quantity / market value / transactions, and the share prices of high-quality private enterprises have been bright since 2020. ② Advantages of private enterprises: they are mostly distributed in growth industries, with better cost control efficiency and flexible incentive mechanism. ③ Problems of private enterprises: internal governance still needs to be optimized and improved.
In the next few years, A-share private enterprise will enter the intensive shift period of founders. ① Since 2010, the average retirement age of the founders of private enterprises has been 59. At present, 58% of the founders who have not retired are over 55 years old, and 26% are over 60 years old. ② Taking the actual controller and the chairman as the two dimensions to measure the power of the company, the current intergenerational inheritance of listed companies is divided into seven categories. Among them, the samples of family inheritance or manager succession since 2010 are the key research objects of the report.
Create a second generation succession: the profit share price is generally weak. ① After the second generation took over, the business tended to be diversified, and the average proportion of the largest business revenue decreased from 64.4% in T-1 year (t is the replacement year) to 60.2% in T + 3 years. ② After the second generation took over, the profit generally weakened, 61% of the sample profit growth center fell, and 63% / 74% of the sample net interest rate / roe fell, which is due to the decline of income growth and the increase of expense rate, which may be caused by the increase of business diversification investment or the decline of expense control ability. ③ The capital market is generally cautious about the succession of the second generation of Chuang and does not recognize the follow-up results. The stock price began to weaken in T, and then fell continuously. The market needs to observe the company’s strategy, business ideas and the ability of successors.
Succession of external managers: stable profits and rising stock prices. ① After the succession of external managers, the business is more concentrated, and the average proportion of the largest business income has increased from 63.4% in T-1 to 68.3% in T + 3. ② After the manager took over, the profitability was stable and the growth rate picked up. Although the growth center of 49% of the samples fell, the average / median of the overall net profit resumed growth, and the average net interest rate and roe of 60% and 71% of the samples fell, but the overall median was basically stable. ③ The performance of managers improved after taking over, because they resisted the downturn of the industry, maintained stable revenue and strengthened cost control. ④ After the manager took over, the stock price rebounded. Although the stock price also fell in the year of handover, the fundamentals improved and promoted the stock price to rise.
Focus on corporate governance and reduce the risk of intergenerational inheritance. ① Focusing on the level of corporate governance is the most effective way for external investors to reduce the investment risk of intergenerational inheritance. Whether it is internal inheritance or external professional managers, the successor’s ability is the most critical. However, for external investors, it is impossible to obtain timely and accurate information on the handover method and successor’s ability. Perfect corporate governance will help to reduce risks. ② Build the evaluation system of governance level of listed private enterprises, screen 8 indicators from the aspects of equity, incentive and board of directors, give weights and calculate the comprehensive score. ③ The star private enterprises (top 20 in market value) that have not yet taken over the shift have medium governance level, and do not show obvious advantages of large companies. Among them, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) score higher, and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , China stock market news, Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) score lower.
Risk warning: epidemic spread; The economy is less than expected; Inflationary pressure; Historical experience does not represent the future.
