By the end of January 2022, 30 provinces in China had held the "two sessions" (Tianjin was postponed due to the epidemic). So far, the local financial and economic report card in 2021 and the work deployment in 2022 have been basically released. What are the characteristics of local finance and economy in 2021? What signals will the local two sessions release in 2022? What are the starting points for the implementation of "stability" and how to balance steady growth and risk prevention? This paper analyzes this.
1. In 2021, the economy of all provinces continued to recover growth, and the GDP of seven provinces exceeded 5 trillion yuan, but the differentiation increased. Since the growth target set at the beginning of last year was not high, the number of provinces that achieved the target increased significantly to 25, while the provinces that exceeded the target were mainly economically strong provinces in the East. Guangdong's total economy reached 12.4 trillion yuan (US $1.9 trillion), surpassing South Korea, equivalent to the level of the world's top ten economies. The growth rate of Hubei rebounded from - 5% to 12.9%. Among the eight provinces whose GDP growth rate is more than 2 percentage points higher than the target value, six are strong in the East, or reflect the trend of "the strong is always strong".
2. By industry, the proportion of service industry in 23 provinces has decreased, which generally reflects that the epidemic still has a great impact on service consumption activities, but the year-on-year and two-year average year-on-year growth rate of Hainan's tertiary industry is leading, or reflects the continuous promotion of the construction of Hainan free trade port and the accelerated development of consumer industries such as tourism and retail sales. In terms of secondary industry, Beijing, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanxi grew rapidly. Beijing was mainly driven by the significant increase in the output of pharmaceutical products such as vaccines. Hubei's industrial production reflected the recovery after the epidemic. The other provinces were related to the rapid growth of electronics, chemical industry, machinery and other industries as well as Shanxi's coal mining industry.
3. In terms of subregions, the proportion of GDP in Northeast China in the whole country has decreased for 10 consecutive years, while the central and western regions are flat. In 2020, the eastern region increased slightly. The economic proportion of the north and the south is 35.2:64.8, which is the same as that in 2020, but the trend is still changing, and the difference between the north and the south is expanding.
4. In terms of three major demands, the export performance of all provinces exceeded expectations, and the performance of investment and consumption was average. China's exports have maintained a high growth rate and become the main driving force driving the economy. The average export growth rate of 23 provinces has exceeded 10% in two years. The eastern part of Guanzhong maintains its advantages, the growth rate of the central region is good, and the differentiation of the western region is obvious. In terms of domestic demand, due to the "first promotion and then suppression" of real estate investment, the "shortage of funds and projects" of infrastructure investment, and the repeated impact of the epidemic on consumption, the performance of investment and consumption in all provinces is flat.
5. In terms of per capita GDP, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Guangdong, Hubei and Chongqing have reached the level of high-income economies (US $12696).
6. In terms of per capita income and expenditure, the income gap between urban and rural areas has narrowed, but the recovery of residents' consumption is slow. The per capita disposable income of all provinces increased steadily, and Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang remained in the lead. The income of most urban and rural provinces decreased between 2020 and 3. The consumption rate of 27 provinces has increased compared with that in 2020, but the vast majority of provinces have not recovered to the level in 2019.
7. "Steady growth" is the focus of economic work this year. The GDP growth target of 26 provinces is higher than the two-year average growth rate of 2020-2021, but 26 provinces are lower than the actual growth rate of last year. Overall, there are 8, 5, 7 and 7 provinces with targets of 5.5%, 6%, 6.5% and 7% respectively. For example, the GDP growth targets of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong are set at 5.5%, while those of Beijing and Shanghai are set at 5% and 5.5% respectively. Some provinces in the West and Northeast China have high growth targets, so it may be difficult to achieve the targets. The expected target of fiscal revenue is lower than the GDP growth target, reflecting the policy guidance of reducing taxes and fees and ensuring market players.
8. The national economic growth target may be set at 5% - 5.5%, and the actual growth rate is expected to fall within this range. The weighted average GDP growth target of each province (weighted by the economic scale of each province) decreased to 6.1% from 6.8% last year, but it still exceeded our expectation of national economic growth this year (5.2%).
9. This year, all provinces will focus on seven directions: increasing investment, boosting consumption, industrial upgrading, reform and opening up, regional coordination, common prosperity and safe development.
First, "moderately advance the layout of major infrastructure projects" and "no speculation in housing and housing" are the knowledge of the work reports of local governments.
Second, many provinces proposed to "promote the sustainable recovery of consumption", mainly focusing on key areas such as automobiles, household appliances and rural consumption, improving the supporting commercial facilities in cities and communities, holding "shopping Festivals" and issuing consumption vouchers.
Third, all localities continue to focus on the three themes of the transformation and upgrading of strategic industries, modern service industries and traditional industries.
Fourth, pay close attention to the reform of the business environment, the marketization of factors, the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, grasp the opportunity of the formal entry into force of RCEP, carry out economic and trade cooperation, coordinate the epidemic prevention and control, smooth the overseas transportation channels of sea, rail and air, and vigorously develop new forms of foreign trade such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas servants.
Fifth, in addition to implementing the national major regional strategies and regional coordinated development strategies of Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area, accelerating the coordinated development of regions in the province and promoting the construction of urban-rural integration, Jiangxi, Yunnan, Gansu and other provinces put forward the action of "strengthening the provincial capital".
Sixth, all localities closely follow the goal of "common prosperity", focus on improving the basic public service system in urban and rural areas, strengthen investment in people's livelihood, make up for shortcomings, and do a good job in education, health, employment, social security, pension and other aspects.
Seventh, all localities should keep the bottom line of safe development, pay close attention to epidemic prevention and control, prevent and resolve major financial, economic and financial risks, control natural disasters and ecological and environmental risks, do a good job in safe production and social governance, and strive to ensure food and energy security.
Risk tip: economic growth is lower than expected
