Manufacturing PMI: seasonal weakness at both ends of supply and demand, expected to boost significantly. With the Spring Festival approaching, some manufacturing industries have entered the traditional production off-season, and the demand is still weak due to the scattered epidemic in many places. In January 2022, the purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the expansion of manufacturing industry has weakened. Mainly affected by seasonal factors, the production index decreased compared with the previous value, but it is still in the expansion range, and the production remains resilient; From the demand side, the new order index is lower than the previous value, and the demand is still insufficient due to the local epidemic and the off-season of some manufacturing industries. The scissors gap between supply and demand continued to narrow, and the imbalance between supply and demand continued to ease. In the future, with the help of various steady growth policies, demand may rebound, and the manufacturing industry will continue to be stable and good. From the perspective of import and export, the new export order index rebounded, the import index decreased, the short-term overseas epidemic and the slow recovery of supply chain supported China's exports, and the entry into force of RCEP will have a positive effect on exports. In addition, we need to pay attention to the changes in China US relations and the situation in Ukraine. In terms of industries, the production of consumer industries related to the Spring Festival and the epidemic increased against the trend, the growth of new kinetic energy related industries slowed down due to off-season factors, and the traditional manufacturing industry showed a differentiation trend. It is expected that the boom of high-tech manufacturing industry will rebound after the festival, and the high-energy consuming industries may continue to be limited, but the overall pace of promotion will not be too radical.
The boom of medium-sized enterprises fell, and small enterprises continued to weaken. In terms of enterprise scale, the prosperity of large enterprises has improved, the PMI index of medium-sized enterprises has declined, and the development of small enterprises has continued to be weak. Except that the demand side of large enterprises continued to pick up, the production index of enterprises of different sizes and the new order index of small and medium-sized enterprises decreased, the demand of medium-sized enterprises fell to the contraction range, and the supply and demand of small enterprises fell to a new low at both ends; The purchase price and ex factory price of main raw materials of enterprises of different sizes have bottomed out and rebounded. In terms of import and export, the export boom of large enterprises continued to rise, the import fell, the import and export index of medium-sized enterprises rebounded, and the import and export of small enterprises continued to weaken. In terms of employees and business expectations, the employee indexes of enterprises of different sizes are below the boom and bust line, while the enterprise expectations have increased significantly. It is expected that with the continuous development of relevant policies, the prosperity level of small enterprises is expected to improve.
Prices bottomed out and rebounded, and the destocking of inventories accelerated. The fluctuation of international energy and bulk commodity prices, coupled with the holiday effect, has driven the market demand, and the purchase price and ex factory price index of main raw materials have returned to the boom and bust line. At the industry level, the prices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries are at a high level. It is expected that in the short term, the international energy price will still fluctuate at a high level under the influence of supply and demand factors. After the seasonal factors subside, the supply and demand will gradually balance, and the price index of relevant industries may tend to be stable. The enterprise raw material inventory and finished product inventory index fell, and the supplier delivery time index fell under the influence of festivals. As the Spring Festival has stimulated consumer demand, enterprise destocking has accelerated.
PMI of non manufacturing industry: the recovery of service industry slows down, and the construction industry is expected to improve after the festival. In January, the non manufacturing business activity index fell, and the recovery of the service industry slowed down. From the perspective of the industry, the prosperity of monetary and financial services was high. Affected by the epidemic, transportation and postal services fell below the critical point, and accommodation and resident services were low. From the perspective of sub indicators, the market demand of the service industry is weak, and the input prices and sales prices return to the expansion range. They are cautious about the prospect, and it is expected that the short-term service industry will still be affected by the epidemic. Affected by the rainy and snowy weather, the approaching Spring Festival and other factors, the business activity index of the construction industry decreased, but the demand rebounded against the season, and the housing construction industry rose month on month. After the festival, the construction industry may rebound driven by the strength of infrastructure investment and the relaxation of real estate policies.
Risk tip: China's demand recovery is less than expected, and the change of epidemic situation is more than expected.
