Core summary
US inflation hit a 40 year high, and residents' lives, economic growth and Biden's support rate were greatly affected.
From the demand side, different from the global economic crisis in 2008, a large number of currencies under the framework of modern monetary theory (MMT) are directly delivered to enterprises and residents; From the supply side, it is mainly affected by the impact of covid-19 epidemic on global supply chain and employment.
Curbing inflation has become the primary goal of the Fed's monetary policy, and the epidemic determines that there is great uncertainty in the trend of inflation in the short term. There are three scenarios in the future.
The possible impacts on China's economy include the slowdown in exports, the devaluation pressure on the RMB, capital outflow, financial market turmoil and so on.
It is suggested that the macro policy should adhere to the principle of "focusing on me", pay close attention to the changes of the situation and respond actively and flexibly; Maintain the flexibility of RMB exchange rate and give play to the role of automatic exchange rate stabilizer; We will continue to expand financial openness and continue to attract foreign capital that allocates Chinese assets for a long time; China and the United States should strengthen communication, abolish additional tariffs and strengthen coordination at the global supply chain level.
