Investment view: downstream demand is expected to pick up, optimistic about the new year and a good start
In the last week of two years ago, the photovoltaic sector continued to callback under the influence of the market. From the perspective of industrial chain, the prices of Longji central have increased. Factors such as Qinghai earthquake and Spring Festival stock market have made the price of silicon chips rise periodically. Nevertheless, the downstream still gradually started bidding (on January 29, Huadian Group announced the purchase of 15gw monocrystalline silicon components), reflecting the downstream's acceptance of the current industrial chain price. Therefore, we believe that with the gradual correction of silicon material price in the future, the downstream demand will be relatively strong this year.
In addition, two weeks before and after the Spring Festival, the policy side continued to release positive results: the Politburo collectively learned to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, and proposed that the development of new energy should be put in a more prominent position and actively and orderly develop light, silicon, hydrogen and renewable energy; The national power market system will be basically established by 2025, and the national power market will be basically unified by 2030; CLP predicts that the new installed capacity of PV will be about 90gw in 2022; The second batch of large base planning has been basically completed, with a total scale of more than 400gw. On the whole, we believe that under the conditions of moderate improvement of the industrial chain, recovery of operating rates in all links, recovery of downstream demand and continuous support from the policy side, the current short callback provides a good allocation opportunity and gives the power equipment industry an "overweight" rating.
Industry trends: in 2030, new energy will fully participate in market transactions, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) plans to invest in the construction of 15gwn heterojunction battery and 15gw module projects
Industry policy: 1) Xi Jinping on promoting the "double carbon" work, it is pointed out that we should put the development of new energy in a more prominent position and actively and orderly develop light, silicon, hydrogen and renewable energy; 2) According to the opinions issued by the two ministries and commissions, new energy will fully participate in market transactions and carry out green power trading pilot in 2030; 3) In 2021, the county promoted the cumulative filing capacity of 46.2gw and the cumulative grid connection capacity of 17.8gw. From the perspective of the reported project development subjects, the cooperative investment and development mode of companies established by central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises accounted for more than 60%; 4) China Power union expects that the newly installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic will be about 50gw and 90gw in 2022; 5) In 2021, the light rejection rate in Tibet will reach 20%, the light rejection rate in Qinghai will reach 14%, and the wind rejection rate in Mengxi will reach 9%; 6) Huadian Group issued the procurement announcement of photovoltaic module framework in 2022 to purchase 15gw of single crystal silicon modules above 530wp; 7) The second batch of large base planning has been basically completed, with a total scale of more than 400gw, and will be implemented during the 14th and 15th five year plans; 8) The White House announced that it would continue to impose tariffs of 14% - 15% on imported crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells in the next four years, and exclude tariffs on specific types of double-sided panels.
Company dynamics: 1) Longji has developed HPBC battery, with a cost of 300-500 million / GW; 2) The State Power Investment Corporation acquired Chint's 311mw household PV for 1.247 billion, with a cumulative acquisition of 800MW; 3) Listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange of Chuangke energy; 4) The price of Longji silicon wafer increased by 3.74% - 4%; 5) Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) it is proposed to invest 15.2 billion to build 15gwn heterojunction battery and 15gw module projects. 5) Central monocrystalline silicon rose 6-10%.
Industrial chain tracking: the price of silicon material continues to rise, waiting for the terminal demand after the festival
Silicon material: according to the silicon industry branch, the price range of China's single crystal re feeding this week was 23000-247000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 241100 yuan / ton, up 0.46% month on month; The price range of single crystal compact is 228000-245000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 238500 yuan / ton, up 0.38% month on month. The price of silicon material remained stable and rose slightly this week. The orders in February have been basically signed. Therefore, even if the supply increases, the price of silicon material is expected to remain relatively stable. Silicon wafers: according to pvinfolink, the average transaction prices of 166mm, 182mm and 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafers in China this week were 5.15 yuan / piece, 6.15 yuan / piece and 8.1 yuan / piece respectively, the same as last week. Silicon wafer prices were stable this week. Qinghai earthquake, Spring Festival stock market and other factors make silicon wafer prices rise periodically. After the festival, these special influencing factors will be eliminated, and the matching degree between this link and upstream and downstream supply and demand will be clearer. Batteries: according to pvinfolink, the average transaction prices of 166mm and 182mm batteries in China this week were 1.08 yuan / W and 1.1 yuan / W respectively, the same as last week; The average transaction price of 210mm battery was 1.08 yuan / W, up 1.9% month on month. The price of battery is stable this week. Near the Spring Festival, the procurement of components has slowed down, and the price of battery remains stable. Components: according to pvinfolink, the average transaction prices of 166mm, 182mm and 210mm components in China this week were 1.85 yuan / W, 1.88 yuan / W and 1.88 yuan / W respectively, the same as last week. The component price is stable this week, and the execution price in January is mainly based on the delivery of early orders. The continuous rise in the price of the middle and upper reaches of the supply chain has caused a certain pressure on the component end, and there is a price rise trend after the festival. However, considering the terminal acceptance, it is expected that the component price will not be significantly adjusted.
Market performance last week: the power equipment sector increased by - 1.92%, ranking second
Last week's market review: the power equipment sector increased by - 1.92% (last week's increase was - 2.90%), ranking second (a total of 28 primary sub industries), 2.66 percentage points compared with the Shanghai Composite Index and 2.59 percentage points compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
Among the constituent stocks of the industry (Shenwan power equipment) last week, the top five weekly gainers and losers were Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) (+ 27.48%), Haili wind power (+ 20.95%), Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) (+ 17.20%), Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) (+ 17.09%) and Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) (+ 16.55%). The last five weekly gainers and losers were Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) (- 18.50%), Sinostar Cable Co.Ltd(300933) (- 19.73%) and Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) (- 25.00%) Sec Electric Machinery Co.Ltd(603988) (- 29.82%) and Chongqing Wanli New Energy Co.Ltd(600847) (- 37.57%).
Risk tips
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise in the price of raw materials, lower than expected downstream demand, risk of intensified industry competition, systemic risk of the market, performance failure of recommended companies, etc.
