Event: during the Spring Festival holiday (from January 31 to February 6), the international oil price continued to rise and broke the important mark of $90. Among them, the price of WTI crude oil rose by $4.6/barrel (+ 5.3%) to $91.92/barrel, Brent crude oil rose by $3.6/barrel (+ 4.1%) to $92.76/barrel, and the international oil price stood at a high point in recent 8 years.
Comments:
The oil supply suffered multiple impacts, and the limited increase in OPEC + production supported the oil price. Snowstorms in the United States affect oil and gas supply: since late January this year, snowstorms have swept the United States, with a total snowfall of 2-6 inches a day and night in the central Atlantic China Welding Consumables Inc(600558) region and some parts of the northeast. According to Bloomberg Nef data, the one-day natural gas supply in Oklahoma, the narrow strip of Texas and Arkansas fell 22% on Wednesday because the frozen wellhead restricted the flow of natural gas. This once pushed us natural gas futures up 17%, and some oil production units were also affected. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is heating up: the confrontation on the border between Russia and Ukraine has triggered concerns about military conflict and subsequent supply uncertainty. Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers and an important supplier of crude oil and natural gas. If there is a comprehensive conflict between the two countries, the West may implement relevant energy sanctions against Russia. Previously, Germany said it would not rule out sanctions on the “beixi-2” project. Geopolitical uncertainty and supply concerns supported the high oil price. Limited increase in OPEC +: at its meeting on Wednesday, OPEC + still insisted on increasing production by 400000 barrels per day per month as planned, and blamed the surge in crude oil prices on consumer countries’ failure to ensure adequate investment in fossil fuels in the process of switching to greener energy. Previously, Goldman Sachs and other institutions predicted that OPEC + may accelerate production under the background of the recent sharp rebound in oil prices and the repeated calls for production increase from the United States, India and other countries. Therefore, the result of maintaining the original yield increase is lower than the previous market expectation. In addition, according to IEA data, OPEC + production increased by only 250000 barrels per day in December (the completion rate was 63%). The low investment in the past few years and recent geopolitical events may damage the actual production capacity of OPEC +, and then affect the fulfillment of the production increase plan.
Crude oil inventory is still at a record low, and the Fed’s interest rate hike will be concerned in the medium and long term: according to the latest data of EIA, the total inventory of crude oil and oil products in the United States in the week of January 28 was 1.179 billion barrels, with a decrease of 5.787 million barrels on a weekly basis and 15.85 million barrels on a monthly basis; Among them, the commercial crude oil inventory was 41500 barrels, with a decrease of 1047000 barrels on a weekly basis and 2708000 barrels on a monthly basis. The current oil price inventory has been lower than the inventory range of the same period in the past five years. The disturbance at the supply side under very low inventory will make the elasticity of oil price more obvious. In addition, Fed chairman Powell said after the first interest rate meeting in 2022 that there is a lot of room for raising interest rates. It does not rule out the possibility that interest rates will be decided at several regular monetary policy meetings in the future. The Fed will accelerate interest rate hikes to support the US dollar in the future, or bring some pressure on oil prices in the medium term.
Investment suggestion: the crude oil price has reached a new high, the global capital expenditure has warmed up, and the leaders in the oil service industry have fully benefited: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ; The rise of oil price drives the increase and expansion of chemical product prices, among which private large-scale refining fully benefits: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , while the relevant industrial chain represented by PTA polyester filament is expected to be driven by cost demand: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) .
Risk tips: repeated global epidemics, geopolitical instability, changes in OPEC + policies and less than expected capital expenditure.
