Industry core view:
The Spring Festival Golden Week in 2022 ended, and the scattered outbreak of the epidemic in many places before the festival disturbed the recovery process of the consumer industry, but there are still some highlights in the Spring Festival data of various industries. The tourism industry is affected by the call of “local Chinese New Year” in many places, and public travel is blocked. During the Spring Festival holiday, the number of Chinese tourists and China’s tourism revenue both fell slightly year-on-year, putting pressure on tourism and scenic spots in the short term. However, the opening of the Winter Olympics, as promised, ignited the ice and snow economy and created a new growth point for the tourism industry. With the significant results of epidemic prevention and control, China’s tourism market has partially warmed up, which is worthy of continuous attention. The tax-free industry has made a good start. Under the influence of overseas consumption return and tax-free policy dividends, Hainan’s tax-free sales performance is bright. China’s tax-free market has great potential, and the performance of the tax-free leader this year can be expected. Baijiu industry prices remain stable, in the long run, high-end and secondary Baijiu demand toughness is strong, sector fundamentals are stable, upward trend is not changed.
It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the tax exemption leader benefiting from the recovery expectation of inbound and outbound tourism and the support of government policies; 2) The performance leader benefiting from the recovery of passenger flow and consumption under the normalization of the epidemic; 3) Head travel agencies and tourist destinations benefiting from the popularity of peripheral tourism and ice and snow tourism; 4) the high-end and second high-end Baijiu enterprises with long term demand.
Key investment points:
Tourism: the number of trips during the Spring Festival has decreased year-on-year, and local tourism ice and snow tourism has become two main lines. During the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, 251 million people traveled in China, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%; China’s tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. The trend of local tourism during the Spring Festival this year is obvious, with tourism within the province accounting for more than three-quarters. Short distance self driving tourism, parent-child tourism, theme park tourism and short-distance leisure activities have increased significantly. The official opening of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games has aroused the attention of people all over the country to ice and snow sports. During the Spring Festival, the order volume of national ice and snow scenic spots increased by 68% compared with the same period last year.
Tax exemption: a number of preferential measures helped Hainan make a good start in tax exemption. During the Spring Festival, Hainan Province, local cities and major duty-free retailers have launched shopping preferential policies. From January 30 to February 1, the number of tourists received in Sanya increased by more than 20% year-on-year, helping the duty-free market of Hainan outlying islands get off to a good start. During the Spring Festival (from January 30 to February 5), the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan Province were 1.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144%; The year-on-year growth rate of duty-free sales, the number of duty-free shoppers and the number of duty-free items purchased exceeded 100%.
Scenic spot: China tour has warmed up locally, and scenic spots around the world have both joy and sorrow. During the Spring Festival holiday, the Chinese tourism market in some destinations has warmed up, and hotel reservations in Xinjiang, Hainan, Jilin, Anhui, Hubei and other provinces have increased significantly. Spring Festival hotel reservations are the most popular in Sanya, Chongqing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing and other cities. There are both joys and sorrows in various scenic spots, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) core projects in Hangzhou and Shanghai were closed due to the epidemic, which affected the performance of this year’s Spring Festival, but the performance of Sanya eternal love was brilliant; The tourism market of Huangshan and Emeishan scenic spots has recovered well
Baijiu: the price of high-end Baijiu is steadily decreasing, and Guangdong has the highest enthusiasm for drinking in the new year. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor fell slightly, and the price of Feitian loose bottles remained unchanged. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the wholesale prices of the fifth, seventh and eighth generations of the general public remained unchanged after falling in early January. Guangdong, Henan tiktok, Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei and Anhui provinces have a high enthusiasm for drinking in the new year, including Guangdong, which ranks 3 in the top three Baijiu liquor search indexes, Baidu, jitter and headlines. The 6 provinces are also the most popular groups in the past five years.
Risk factors: consumption recovery is less than expected, epidemic risk, food safety risk, investment and M & A integration risk.