Core points: the allocation ratio of public offering heavy positions to the non bank financial sector was 2.55%, with a slight decrease of 0.03 PCT and a low allocation of 2.96 PCT; The performance express of securities companies in 2021 is generally bright. First, the performance of securities companies with strong wealth management business is better, and second, the net profit of Q4, the leading securities company, is bright in a single quarter, which may be due to the reversal of credit impairment provision.
Quarterly data analysis of public offering positions of non bank sector in 2021q4:
The allocation ratio of public offering heavy positions to the non bank financial sector was 2.55%, with a slight decrease of 0.03pct and a low allocation of 2.96pct. As of 2021q4, the allocation ratio of public offering heavy positions to the non bank financial sector was 2.55% (mom -0.03pct). Generally, it showed a downward trend after the high point of 6.21% in 2019q2, and was generally stable in the past three quarters. Compared with the proportion of the non bank financial sector in the market value of a shares, the public offering still has a significant low allocation of 2.96pct to non bank finance, but the degree of low allocation is decreasing, which has decreased from 4.27pct in 2020q3.
In terms of segments, the allocation ratio of public offering heavy positions to the securities sector was 1.93%, which was basically the same month on month, with a low allocation of 1.37pct; The allocation proportion of the insurance sector was 0.40%, which was basically the same month on month, with a low allocation of 1.31pct; The allocation proportion of diversified financial sector was 0.22%, with a month on month decrease of 0.02pct and a low allocation of 0.28pct.
The top five stocks in non bank heavy positions are China stock market news, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) . Among them, China stock market news has increased the proportion of additional allocation relatively more (month on month change + 0.05pct), and Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Hong Kong stock exchange have reduced the proportion of allocation relatively more (month on month change -0.04pct and -0.05pct respectively).
Brief comment on 2021 annual performance express of securities companies:
As of February 7, 32 securities companies (including listed securities companies and their parent companies) have predicted the performance of 2021, of which 27 have increased their profits year-on-year, 5 have decreased their net profits year-on-year, and 4 are expected to double their net profits.
We believe that the highlights of the performance express: one is that the performance of characteristic securities companies with strong wealth management business is significantly better than that of the industry. For example, the performance growth of Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and China stock market news in 21 years has reached 85% – 105% and 72% – 86% respectively;
The other is that the annual net profit growth of comprehensive leading securities companies is significantly higher than that of revenue, and the net profit of Q4 in a single quarter is bright, which may be due to the reversal of credit impairment provision in securities companies’ expenses. Take Guojun as an example: 1. Guojun’s net profit margin in the first three quarters of 2021 was 37.2%, while according to the performance express, it is speculated that the net profit margin of Q4 in a single quarter was as high as 53.6%; 2. Guojun’s provision for credit impairment in 2020 was 1.312 billion yuan, compared with 325 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, and 105 million yuan was reversed in the third quarter compared with the interim report. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is a similar situation. According to the performance express, the operating cost rate decreased significantly by 4.26pct from 62.05% in 2020 to 57.8% in 2021. The cost rate gap mainly comes from the significant reduction of credit impairment.
Investment suggestion: at the current time, we suggest to actively pay attention to the investment opportunities of securities companies. 1. Wealth management is the sunrise track of the financial industry, and the performance of bond business with strong wealth management business will continue to be strong. Our in-depth report estimates that the growth rate of wealth management profits in the next ten years will be 21% (see detailed calculation of income, profit and market value of “wealth management industry”: the golden track with a market value of 10 trillion for details); In addition, we expect that the scale of public funds will increase by 16.5% in the next 10 years, of which the growth rate of equity products will increase by 22% (see in-depth measurement | structural change of wealth management industry: product structure, rate change and investment advisory income for details). 2. Under the expectation of steady growth, China’s liquidity will remain abundant, and the liquidity environment is favorable for securities companies. 3. The valuation is low, and the fund position is still significantly low. At present, the Pb valuation of the securities sector is lower than that of the valuation center in recent five years (SW securities Pb valuation is about 1.6 times, about 40% quantile). The allocation ratio of public offering heavy positions to the securities sector in 2021q4 is 1.93%, which is basically the same month on month, with a low allocation of 1.37pct. Recommend Dongcai, CITIC, Huatai, Guojun, Dongfang and CICC among securities companies, as well as HKEx, AIA and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) .
Risk warning: the regulatory environment is becoming stricter; Intensified market competition; New business expansion was less than expected.
