Core view
In the 4TH-5TH week, the turnover of new houses and second-hand houses increased year-on-year, but the sales of new houses in the Spring Festival was weaker than that in the same period of previous years. In the 4TH-5TH week, the number of new houses sold in 33 cities was 43000, up 18.8% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 28000, a year-on-year increase of 67.0%; 1、 The number of new houses sold in second and third tier cities increased by + 99.7%, + 67.8% and + 1.9% respectively year-on-year. The number of second-hand housing transactions was 149000, up by 2.9% year-on-year; 11. The number of second-hand housing transactions in large and medium-sized cities was 11000, up 4.7% year-on-year; 1、 The year-on-year growth rate of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities was + 8.8%, + 5.7% and – 30.1% respectively. The sales of new houses during the Spring Festival was weaker than that in the same period of previous years, with a significant growth in the first line, and the third and fourth lines were still under obvious pressure. Annual sales need to pay attention to the repair of the third and fourth lines. Compared with the Spring Festival in 2021 and 2019, the transaction area of new houses in the cities tracked by us decreased by 47.9% and 7.9% respectively. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the first tier cities increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 75.7% and 262% respectively compared with the Spring Festival in 2021 and 2019. The transaction area of new houses in the third tier cities was significantly under pressure, with a year-on-year decrease of 62.7% and 85.6% respectively compared with the Spring Festival in 2021 and 2019. (Note: affected by epidemic factors in 2020, it is not in the scope of comparison)
The inventory of new houses decreased year-on-year, and the decontamination cycle increased year-on-year. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.032 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and the decontamination cycle was 12.3 months, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities is 560000 sets, and the decontamination cycle is 8.5 months; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities is 263000 units, with a deconvolution cycle of 7.9 months, and the inventory of new houses in the second tier cities is 206000 units, with a deconvolution cycle of 9.2 months. The number of new houses in the third tier cities is 90000, and the decontamination cycle is 9.1 months.
Compared with the same period in 2021, the overall land market fell both in volume and price, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 246, a year-on-year decrease of 62.7%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 16.81 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 66.0%; The total land transaction price was 18.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.4%; The average floor price of land traded was 1098 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 73.4%; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 0.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 98.3%.
Investment advice
In January, the sales amount of equity caliber of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 42.3% year-on-year, an increase of 4.2 percentage points over the previous month; Compared with the Spring Festival in 2021, the new house transaction area of the cities we tracked in 2022 decreased by 47.9% and 7.9% compared with the Spring Festival in 2019. Among them, the first tier cities increased significantly and the third tier cities were under significant pressure. Since the beginning of the year, sales have continued to bottom out, and policy adjustments at both ends of the industry are still expected to strengthen. From the perspective of sector investment, we adhere to the view that “the first quarter is a better allocation window period” and suggest to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
