Since 2021 / 10, CITIC Auto Parts II index has increased by about 11.3%; We judge that this round of rise mainly benefited from the industry replenishment driven by the improvement of 4q21 chip shortage and the increase in the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles. Combined with the national “double carbon” policy and the promotion path of automobile intelligent electrification, we expect that in the next stage, auto parts will continue to focus on growth around the three core themes of intelligence + electrification + energy saving. We are optimistic about three emerging areas of auto parts: intelligent cockpit, chassis by wire and integrated die casting.
Intelligent cockpit may accelerate landing: 1) benefiting from the strong support of the policy side, the upgrading of consumers’ demand based on Intelligent experience and the stronger cashability at the technical level, it is expected that the intelligent cockpit will show the trend of stock renewal, incremental penetration and continuous upgrading of functional components; 2) In the intelligent cockpit industry chain, in view of the high technical barriers of upstream hardware and software and the increasing competition of downstream vehicles, it is expected that the midstream intelligent parts may have a better prospect of fixed-point release; 3) It is estimated that the core difficulties of midstream smart parts may lie in high capital investment, long vehicle regulation certification cycle and customer base; Among them, parts manufacturers that have earlier laid out high-quality subdivided industries and increased technical reserves may have higher growth space.
The chassis by wire may gradually transition to large-scale application: 1) compared with the traditional chassis, the chassis by wire has the advantages of lightweight, energy saving and accurate handling, which is perfectly in line with the development direction of automobile electrification / intelligence; 2) Among the four systems of chassis by wire, brake by wire / steering by wire is still in the stage of application to be popularized / technology to be incubated, or there will be a large growth space; 3) In terms of braking by wire, in view of the advantages of integration, lightweight and energy saving, ehbonebox is expected to be the mainstream solution in the next stage, and is optimistic about the parts manufacturers with technical reserves in the field of ehbonebox; 4) In terms of steering by wire, since the design structure of r-eps is closest to the future development direction SBW, it is optimistic about the parts manufacturers with technology accumulation in the field of r-eps.
Integrated die casting may rewrite the “four traditional processes of automobile manufacturing”: 1) the integrated die casting process has obvious advantages over the traditional process (stamping + welding) in cost reduction and lightweight. It is expected that major automobile enterprises (new forces and traditional OEMs) will successively apply integrated die casting to new intelligent electric vehicle platforms / models, The integrated die casting industry is expected to usher in a demand growth point; 2) In view of the high technical barriers and experience needs of the integrated die casting process, it is expected that the integrated die casting industry may be highly concentrated; Among them, parts manufacturers who have cultivated in the traditional die casting industry for many years and have reached an integrated casting supply agreement with vehicle manufacturers may benefit.
Investment suggestions: 1) smart cockpit, optimistic about the high-quality targets of each segment circuit of midstream hardware (central control, HUD, domain controller and sky curtain / skylight glass), recommend Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , and pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) ; 2) The chassis controlled by wire is optimistic about the rising trend of penetration rate of braking / steering by wire driven by intelligent electric propulsion. It is recommended to pay attention to Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) and Nextel; 3) We are optimistic about the increase in the application proportion of new integrated die casting technology and independent parts companies with core technology. We suggest paying attention to Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) .
Risk tip: the chip shortage is not alleviated as expected; The industry replenishment is less than expected; Capacity utilization is lower than expected; The fixed-point release of existing products is less than expected; The progress of new product development is less than expected; The rising range of permeability of new technology is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Market risk and repeated epidemic risk.
