Core view
The public offering positions in the securities sector continued to improve, and the positions in the insurance sector continued to refresh the record low. 1) The proportion of public offering positions in 21q4 securities sector (except China stock market news, the same below) recovered for the second consecutive quarter after 21q3. By calculating the details of heavy positions of public funds of flexible allocation type, partial stock type and common stock type (the fund type that best reflects the position style and subjective allocation willingness of public funds), as of 21q4, the position of public offering heavy positions of securities companies accounted for 0.66%, which further increased from 0.61% in 21q3, showing the continuous recovery of investment sentiment in securities companies. 2) 21q4 insurance sector’s public offering of shares with heavy positions accounted for a further decline, reflecting the market’s pessimistic attitude towards the sector has not improved. As of 21q4, the position proportion of the insurance sector has decreased from 2.25% in 20q4 to 0.17%, continuing to hit a record low after 0.20% in 21q3.
The range of low allocation in the securities sector narrowed slightly month on month, and the range of low allocation in the insurance sector hit a record high. 1) The proportion of free circulation market value of 21q4 securities companies fell from 4.33% to 4.23% month on month. As of 21q4, the low allocation range (low allocation range = (proportion of free circulation – proportion of heavily held shares) / proportion of free circulation) of public offering in the securities sector was 84.37%, which was slightly narrowed compared with 85.93% in 21q3, and significantly narrowed compared with 95% + in the previous three consecutive quarters. 2) As of 21q4, the free circulation market value of the insurance sector accounted for 1.97%, an increase of 0.23pct compared with 21q3. The low allocation range of the sector further set a new record. As of 21q4, the low allocation range of the insurance sector increased to 91.26% month on month from 88.77% of 21q3, especially compared with 47% of 18q3, indicating that the investment sentiment of the sector has fallen to the historical freezing point.
Most of the top 10 heavyweight stocks in the securities sector were increased, and individual stocks in the insurance sector were continuously reduced. 1) Most of the top 10 heavyweight stocks in the securities sector have been further increased, and the proportion of heavyweight holdings of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) has increased from 0.110%, 0.156%, 0.101%, 0.022% and 0.026% to 0.179%, 0.178%, 0.117%, 0.045% and 0.041% respectively. In addition, Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) entered the list of heavyweight stocks because of the prospect of strategic cooperation with internet platforms. 2) The proportion of top 5 heavy position shares in the insurance sector is also increased or decreased. The ratio of public offering heavy position shares of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) decreased from 0.141%, 0.051% and 0.003% of 21q3 to 0.130%, 0.040% and 0.001% respectively. The heavy position stock ratio of China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) and The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) increased from 0.0007% and 0% to 0.0020% and 0.0002% respectively. 3) In terms of diversified financial sector, Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) entered the list of heavy position stocks, with a position ratio of 0.06%. This reflects the significant increase in the market’s attention to the track of AWP lessors of aerial work platform.
Investment proposal and investment object
As of 2021q4, the position of securities companies has further increased month on month, but it is still at a historically low level, while the position of insurance sector has set a new record low. On the whole, the allocation of institutional funds to the non bank sector is still low, which means that the momentum of subsequent rise is sufficient, and the allocation cost performance of some high-quality targets is still high.
In terms of securities companies, double click on market liquidity and policy, continue to be optimistic about the spring market of the sector, select high-quality targets with fundamentals, and maintain the optimistic rating of the industry. At present, it is still the first to promote the main line of derivatives, recommending Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030, overweight), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (601688, overweight), and paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (03908, not rated); Secondly, we should continue to pay attention to the main line of large public offering and recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (000776, buy), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (601377, increase Holdings).
In terms of insurance, the scale of the team has gradually bottomed out, the production capacity of the remaining team has been improved, and it is expected to start a good start gradually; The inflection point of property insurance has arrived, and we look forward to the synchronous improvement of premium and cor; The outlook of the equity market is optimistic, and the liberalization of the investment ceiling adds upward flexibility. We are optimistic about large insurance companies that actively promote reform and enhance production capacity through science and technology empowerment and cross sales, and maintain the optimistic rating of the industry. Follow up suggestions focus on Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (601318, buy), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (601601, not rated), AIA (01299, not rated).
In terms of diversified finance, it is recommended to recommend Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (603300, buy) as the leading lessee of aerial working platform (AWP).
Risk tips
The suppression of systemic risk on the performance and valuation of securities business; Stricter supervision than expected;
The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; Related policy risks in diversified financial field.
