\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Lisheng Racing Co.Ltd(002858) (002858)
The company is a leading automobile sports operator and service provider in China, with a comprehensive layout of national fitness digital services. The traditional main business is event operation and service. Since 2021, it has successively "appointed the former general manager of Ali sports coo Yu as the general manager of the company" and "participated in the stock of Star Sports Fitness app company to please the world", marking the opening of the national fitness business. The company will build a digital platform for National Fitness - "sports bank" through "sports points exchange incentive mode" with "happy circle" as the carrier. We believe that the future growth of the company mainly comes from three aspects: 1) epidemic control, and the gradual recovery of traditional businesses such as event operation in 2022; 2) "Saika alliance chain venues" and other fund-raising projects have been put into operation; 3) "Sports bank" and other new national fitness businesses have gradually begun to commercialize.
Sports industry is the key support direction of the state, and the value of social economy and quality education is prominent. The status and role of the sports industry in the national economy have been significantly improved. From 2015 to 2019, the total scale of the national sports industry jumped from 1.71 trillion yuan to 2.95 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 14.6%. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's sports development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. National Fitness helps to reduce the burden of social (medical) insurance. Research shows that if you invest more than 1 yuan in sports and fitness, you can reduce the investment of 7-8 yuan in medical treatment. In the 14th five year plan for sports development, the General Administration of sports mentioned that "actively promote the concentration of sports resources and production factors to high-quality enterprises, and strive to cultivate 100 sports enterprises with operating income of more than 10 billion yuan, high brand awareness, strong international competitiveness and large industry driving force". Sports enterprises usher in a golden development period.
The traditional main business is obviously affected by the epidemic in the short term. It will increase the code of "competition + entertainment" and actively layout the C-end market. Covid-19 pneumonia epidemic affected offline events, and both revenue and profit margin were under pressure. It returned to 50% - 60% of the normal level in 2021. Affected by the global covid-19 pneumonia epidemic, the international events operated by the company were suspended in the last three quarters of 2020, and the Chinese RV championship was not held until August 2020, but the scale of the event and the number of spectators were greatly limited. The company's existing business mainly focuses on the b-end customer market, and the customers are mainly automobile manufacturers or enterprises with strong connections with the automobile industry. In recent years, in line with the development trend of China's automobile sports towards civilians and popularization, the company has actively arranged for the C-end customer market by exploring the creation of automobile sports events in a new category of "competition + entertainment" and the opening of go kart venues.
"Yuedong circle" is an important part of building a new business carrier, and sports bank integrates data and users. "Sports bank" is the core of the company's national fitness business. Yu, general manager of the company, is always the initiator of the concept of "sports bank", which was first put into practice in Alibaba system and widely recognized by all sectors of society. "Sports bank" has solved two major pain points of sports fitness app: user growth and commercialization. In terms of user growth, the company adopts the "2G / 2B" customer acquisition mode to avoid the heavy investment purchase mode, "rural" surrounds the city, starting from teenagers and middle-aged and elderly people. In terms of commercialization, for end B, provide sports big data, event and training IP, AI physical education and other services for governments, schools and other institutions; For the C-end, point exchange is essentially an e-commerce diversion business based on CPS; In the future, the realization modes such as "sports insurance" are also worth looking forward to.
[investment advice]
We pay attention to the future development of the company from two aspects: the recovery of traditional business and the rapid growth of "sports bank" business. Based on the business of traditional racing events, we expect that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 275 / 421 / 615 million, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 05 / 0.33/0.65 million, and the earnings per share will be 0.03/0.20/0.41 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023. PE corresponds to 502 / 80 / 40 times. We are cautious and optimistic and give a "overweight" rating.
[risk tips]
Traditional business recovery is less than expected
New business expansion is less than expected
Lifting of restricted shares
