\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (002304)
More than expected 1: the proportion of Spring Festival receipts and movable sales increased significantly, and the speed of structural upgrading may exceed expectations
Market concerns: whether m3, sky blue and sea blue can be upgraded successfully.
We believe that the upgrading of the company's main products has basically passed the Spring Festival examination, and the upgrading speed is faster than expected. During the Spring Festival, Yanghe launched a large number of promotional activities for sky blue and above products to promote the volume increase, so as to further promote the structural upgrading. At the same time, the price remains stable. The dealer inventory is generally about one month, and the terminal inventory is generally within 1.5 months. There is a strong demand for replenishing inventory after the festival. Specifically: ① meng6 +: the feedback of dynamic sales during the Spring Festival is good under the condition of volume control, and the annual growth rate is expected to exceed 30%. At present, the wholesale price in the province is about 600-610 + yuan, and the transaction price is about 640-650 yuan; ② Crystal dream: at present, crystal dream has completed the replacement of new and old ones, with a bid price of about 410 yuan + and a transaction price of about 435-450 yuan. The price is basically the same as that of Sikai. At the same time, the channel profit is restored to 30-40 yuan / bottle. High channel profit + rich channel actions lead to structural upgrading exceeding expectations and sales exceeding expectations; ③ Tianzhilan upgraded version: the overall upgrading of tianzhilan upgraded version is nearly completed, with a bid price of about 290 yuan and a transaction price of about 330 yuan. The price and channel profits have increased significantly; ④ Sea blue: the upgraded version of sea blue is expected to be accelerated in the near future; ⑤ Shuanggou: the dynamic sales during the Spring Festival are strong. It is expected that Shuanggou will still achieve a high growth of about 60% in 22 years, and Shuanggou has become the second growth pole.
Beyond expectations II: product upgrading and personnel adjustment, and the expansion speed outside the province may exceed expectations
Market concerns: the expansion and growth of markets outside the province.
We believe that the development of markets outside Yanghe province exceeds expectations or opens up long-term imagination. With the mature Baijiu area entering the "zero sum game" stage, the development of the market outside the province is the key to steady growth. In the past 21 years, with the upgrading of various products and the adjustment of regional managers, we have observed that: 1) mature provinces have resumed growth: Henan and Anhui have resumed growth, and Shandong has achieved high growth; 2) The growth of high-capacity immature provinces is rapid: in 21 years, Yanghe has increased by more than 40% in Jiangxi, Hubei and other high-capacity immature provinces, and the Zhejiang market also has high growth performance. Overall, the growth rate of market expansion outside Yanghe province may exceed expectations.
More than expected 3: the new management has taken positive measures + strong brand toughness, and the release speed of reform dividends may exceed expectations
The market is worried about the target achievement rate and quality after the adjustment of the company's management.
We believe that: 1) the payment collection end is improving, laying the foundation for performance completion: the payment collection rate of Yanghe in the Spring Festival in 2022 is faster than that in previous years, and the proportion of payment for the Spring Festival is expected to reach 40% - 50%. In Q1, the proportion of payment for the spring festival may reach 55% (or an increase of about 20pcts compared with the same period last year). The proportion of payment for Shuanggou Spring Festival has reached 50% of the annual task. Under the strong sales, the income growth rate of 25% of the whole year can be expected; 2) The market reform measures of the new management are positive, and the brand toughness and performance completion quality are underestimated: since the new chairman took office in 21 years: ① the adjustment of channel and regional marketing personnel has been basically completed: at present, the overall channel profit has increased, the price is stable and the inventory is benign for one month. At the same time, the company adjusts regional managers to realize the specialization and rejuvenation of management personnel; ② The salary reform and equity incentive are implemented: the salary of all employees is increased by 800 yuan (the salary of grass-roots employees increases by more than 10%) + the shareholding plan of core backbone + improve the career rising channel of young backbone, comprehensively improve the enthusiasm of employees at all levels and promote the younger development of management team; ③ Shuanggou and your liquor brand have developed independently and achieved continuous high growth: it is expected that Shuanggou may achieve a sales target of 4 billion yuan in 21 years, and will still achieve a high growth of more than 60% in 22 years, and the growth rate of your liquor may exceed 100% in 22 years. Overall, the reform dividend is expected to accelerate in 22 years.
High quality development is the main tone, and M6 + leads long-term growth
Short term: 1) externally, the company's main products have passed the Spring Festival examination, and the payment progress, replacement speed and dynamic sales quality have exceeded expectations; 2) Internally, high-quality development is the main tone, and the new chairman is expected to bring a new atmosphere after taking office. Over the past 21 years, the company has implemented reforms in many aspects, such as the implementation of "broadband salary and profit sharing", the launch of the core backbone shareholding plan, the emphasis on the construction of new manufacturer relations and the "four principles", and the reform dividend is expected to continue to be released; 3) The impact of changes in fair value on net profit may be narrowed.
Long term: Dream 6 + is the core growth pole, double channel thickening performance, and helping the company's high-quality development in the 14th five year plan. We believe that the company will have two growth poles in the future: 1) meng6 + is expected to become the first 10 billion single product in the sub high-end upgrading price belt: at present, meng6 + can still maintain a steady increase in the wholesale price in the continuous volume, the inventory is at a historical low, the market layout in the province is basically completed, and the focus is on other provincial capital markets and key cities. The current inventory price of meng3 crystal version is benign, It will follow M6 + to realize accelerated development. 2) Shuanggou thickening performance: relying on the profound cultural heritage, independent operation and the comprehensive empowerment of the chairman's work, it may still achieve a high growth of more than 60% in 22 years, and sujiu Toupai wine, Lvsu and zhenbaofang perform well.
Profit forecast and valuation
The speed of structural upgrading, the release speed of reform dividends and the expansion speed outside the province may exceed expectations, resulting in a 22-year performance that is expected to exceed expectations. It is expected that the revenue growth rate of more than 25% in 2022 will have high accessibility. With the moving sales and upgrading speed gradually exceeding expectations, it has high cost performance. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 16.6%, 25.0% and 16.2% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.1%, 30.0% and 22.5% respectively; EPS is 5.2, 6.8 and 8.3 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 31, 24 and 20 times respectively.
Catalyst: inventory decline and terminal price increase; Dream Blue M6 + movable pin continues to improve.
Risk warning: 1. Epidemic situation has repeatedly affected Baijiu selling. 2. The situation of Dream Blue M6 + movable pin was not as expected.
