\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) (688155)
Key investment points
Event:
The company’s 2022 restricted stock incentive plan (Draft) was approved by the general meeting of shareholders.
The equity incentive plan was approved by the general meeting of shareholders, demonstrating the confidence of the management
The company has previously released the 2022 equity incentive plan: a total of 1 million restricted shares have been granted, including 875200 shares for the first time. The granting price of restricted shares is 108 yuan (the current stock price is 109 yuan), and the granting objects include 148 directors, senior managers and business backbones of the company. According to the performance unlocking conditions: the first attribution period (2022) takes the operating revenue or net profit in 2021 as the base, and the growth rate of operating revenue or net profit in 2022 is not less than 50%. The second attribution period (2023) is based on the operating revenue or net profit in 2021. The growth rate of operating revenue or net profit in 2023 is not less than 100%.
New energy vehicle model group / pack equipment leader, five factors driving performance acceleration
The five factors are: 1) the growth of new energy vehicles; 2) Improve the automation rate of equipment; 3) Domestic substitution; 4) Globalization; 5) Breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that China’s module / pack line market will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2021 to 2025. Driving forces for growth: 1) the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 11.46 million in 2025; 2) At present, China’s module / pack automation rate is only about 40%, which is expected to continue to increase under the influence of policies, labor cost improvement, industrial structure adjustment and other factors, and is expected to increase to 80% by 2025.
From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) At present, the medium and high-end market of China’s module / pack line is still dominated by foreign capital. The company is a leading enterprise of domestic brands. We estimate that the company’s market share in China will be about 25% in 2020. 2) New energy vehicles in Europe and the United States are growing rapidly. It is estimated that the market scale of European / American module / pack line will reach 8.3 billion yuan / 5.3 billion yuan respectively in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20% / 67%. The company has set up two subsidiaries in North America and Germany and overseas offices in the Czech Republic. Globalization is expected to make a breakthrough.
Breakthroughs in new products and new fields. Relay power lithium battery module / pack line, the company has rich reserves in module / pack products, energy storage, fuel cell assembly line and other fields, and has completed the delivery of relevant projects of important customers.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.8/2.9/420 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 90% in three years; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 is 102 / 28 / 20 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The industry competition intensifies, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
