\u3000\u3000 Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) (603313)
The company released the performance forecast, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be – 240 million yuan to – 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 163% – 179%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is – 156 million yuan to – 216 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 145% – 162%. Q1 / Q1 / Q3 achieved net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 55 / – 0.46 / – 189 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 31% / 162% / 199%. Q4 alone is expected to achieve net profit attributable to parent company of RMB – 60 million to – 120 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 281% – 463%. In Q1 / Q1 / Q3, the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non net profit of 19 / – 57 / – 27 million yuan respectively, and in Q4 alone, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non net profit of – 91 million yuan to – 151 million yuan.
The low point of short-term performance has passed. With the marginal improvement of raw material prices and sea freight, as well as the gradual climbing of American production capacity, profitability is expected to recover steadily. Affected by raw materials, labor costs and sea freight, the company’s gross profit margin is under pressure in the short term. In 2021, TDI / MDI prices increased significantly year-on-year. In 2021, the average price of MDI was 22127.60 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 24.86%, and the average price of TDI was 14561.20 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 18.69%, but it decreased compared with the highest value from March to April of 21. In 21 years, China’s export container freight index (CCFI) has always been at a high level year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 244.45% in August, the highest value of the whole year. As of December 21, the CCFI monthly comprehensive index was 3265.41, with a year-on-year increase of + 125.81%. With the rise and fall of raw materials and shipping prices, the gross profit margin is expected to rise steadily.
Affected by the epidemic, factories in the East and west of the United States did not climb as expected. Affected by anti-dumping, the production of factories in Serbia was affected to a certain extent. With the decline of the impact of the epidemic, the capacity utilization rate of overseas factories may gradually increase. Meidong and Meixi factories are in the production capacity climbing period. Affected by the epidemic, the production rate of the two factories is lower than expected. As of October 21, the production capacity of Meidong factory is about 4000 pieces / day, and it is under continuous optimization. As the European market was closed in the first half of the year, Serbian factories were affected to some extent. With the gradual control of the epidemic, 80% – 90% of the production capacity had been basically restored as of October 21. Overall, the company’s overseas production capacity layout is gradually on the right track.
The one-time accrual affects the company’s net profit for 21 years, and the inflection point of the company’s performance has been seen. On September 2, 2021, the company announced that the lawsuit between the company and benjaminfolkins (a minority shareholder of the company’s U.S. subsidiary chinabedsdirect, LLC) and upwardmobility, Inc. (a company controlled by benjaminfolkins) had won the first instance judgment. The company accrued estimated liabilities for the $4.0689 million equity withdrawal and $20 million punitive damages involved, with an amount of about RMB 160 million. The company is still actively appealing, and the accrued amount may be adjusted according to the progress of the lawsuit. In addition, 21q4 company has made bad debt provision for single significant assets with signs of impairment, which also affects the profit of 21 years. We believe that the two provisions have a one-time impact on the performance, and the net profit is under pressure in the short term. In the long term, with the gradual improvement of the company’s product competitiveness, supply chain and channel management ability, the revenue scale and profitability are expected to be further improved.
Profit forecast: considering the stabilization of raw material prices and sea freight and the gradual improvement of overseas capacity utilization, we raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 years will be 500 million yuan (the original value is 330 million yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 269%, and the corresponding PE is 16x, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the forecast data is only the preliminary accounting data, the risk of pending litigation, the risk of continuous rise of sea freight and raw materials, the risk of repeated global epidemic, the production capacity is less than expected, etc.
