\u3000\u3000 Lijiang Yulong Tourism Co.Ltd(002033) (002033)
The company expects to achieve revenue of 355-360 million yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.48% - 17.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to lose 28-38 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 140% - 154%. Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company, the expected loss is 23-33 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 132% - 147%.
Key points supporting rating
Consolidate the core resource advantages of Yulong Snow Mountain Tourism and actively expand the Shangri La ecotourism circle: the company sits on the core tourism resources of Yulong Snow Mountain, and a number of business services are located in Yulong Snow Mountain scenic spot, with obvious geographical advantages. The cableway business links three famous scenic spots: Yulong Snow Mountain, yunshanping and yakuping. The company will set up Ganhaizi tourist distribution center to integrate the existing business projects in the region and reasonably plan the tourist tour process. Backed by Shangri La, the company plans projects such as Moonlight City Hotel and Mosuo town to expand the large Shangri La ecotourism circle, and its performance is expected to usher in huge growth space.
Regional tourism leaders have the advantage of resource integration, and the company's industrial chain is constantly improved: the company operates snow mountain tourism cableway, international brand hotel, tourism performance and other businesses to provide comprehensive tourism services for tourists. At present, the company still has a good financial situation, abundant cash flow and smooth financing channels. In the future, the company can still integrate high-quality tourism resources in Lijiang, Northwest Yunnan and other regions through capital operation, promote the construction of tourism and vacation complexes in key and difficult destination areas, improve the company's business chain and promote the development of the company into a multi-functional service provider of comprehensive tourism destinations.
The epidemic spread led to the lack of peak tourism season, and the seasonal business recovery of the company was less than expected: the third quarter was the quarter with the highest passenger flow of the company, and the revenue and profit accounted for a large proportion of the whole year. Affected by the epidemic situation in some parts of China in 2021, Yunnan Province suspended inter provincial tourism for three times, resulting in the absence of the summer peak season in August and the exhibition peak season in November. The company's business was greatly impacted and the performance recovery was less than expected.
Valuation
According to the company's performance forecast in 2021, the company's EPS in 21-23 years is adjusted to -0.05/0.19/0.26 yuan, and the corresponding P / E ratio is -121.2/33.3/25.4 times. The company's operation is still under pressure due to the spread of the epidemic, but the core tourism resources of Yulong Snow Mountain, the great Shangri La ecotourism circle, the company's ability to integrate resources and continuously improve the industrial chain make the medium and long-term recovery logic expected to be maintained. Therefore, maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
Covid-19 has the risk of repeated epidemic, fierce market competition and cableway operation safety.
