On February 7, the first trading day of the lunar new year, the Spring Festival in the stock market arrived as promised, the real estate sector ushered in a “good start”, and the share prices of more than 100 enterprises rose. But from the sales side, the recovery of the property market is far from coming.
During the Spring Festival, the tide of returning home buyers staged in previous years did not appear. Among the key cities monitored by the China Index Research Institute, the overall transaction area of new commercial houses decreased by 51% year-on-year. Prior to January, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises also generally fell, with 15 real estate enterprises with sales of more than 10 billion, a significant decrease of 14 compared with the same period last year.
It is not only the “Waterloo” of the sales of real estate enterprises in danger and small real estate enterprises, but also many large-scale real estate enterprises such as Vanke Real estate, CNOOC real estate, China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) and Xuhui group. The sales in January showed a downward trend compared with the same period in 2021 and 2020.
Industry analysts believe that the sales performance of most large-scale real estate enterprises was poor in January, and the supply contracted in February due to the Spring Festival holiday; In the long run, in the process of bottoming down the industry, there will still be a certain scale of real estate enterprises facing the dilemma of negative growth.
the sales of real estate enterprises have been in a continuous downturn 7 months
It is becoming more and more difficult for developers to sell their houses, as can be seen from the sales data in January.
According to the data released by China Index Research Institute, the average sales of top 100 real estate enterprises in January decreased by 23.1% year-on-year to 6.18 billion yuan. Among them, there were 15 real estate enterprises with sales of more than 10 billion in January, a decrease of 14 compared with the same period last year; There were 22 real estate enterprises exceeding 5 billion, down 31 from the same period last year.
In the golden age of real estate, it was a common thing in the industry to raise the sales threshold of all camps of real estate enterprises. But now, the scale shrinkage has begun to become the norm, and even the threshold of the top 100 real estate enterprises is also decreasing.
In January, the threshold value of top 3 real estate enterprises was 27.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.6%; The threshold value of top 10 real estate enterprises was 14.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.3%; The threshold value of top 30 real estate enterprises was 6.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.3%; The threshold values of top 50 real estate enterprises and top 100 real estate enterprises were 3.9 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.1% and 45.4% respectively.
The current situation of real estate enterprises is generally from the waist to the tail.
According to the Securities Research Report, the monthly sales of top 1-3, top 4-10, top 11-20, top 21-50 and top 51-100 real estate enterprises in January were 111.3 billion, 112.1 billion, 96.1 billion, 168.4 billion and 97.1 billion, down 40.2%, 43.5%, 39.7%, 38.3% and 42.8% respectively year-on-year.
Among the leading real estate enterprises, country garden, Vanke and poly are among the top three. The full caliber sales in January were 49.45 billion yuan, 33.5 billion yuan and 28.3 billion yuan respectively, down 11.09%, 52.28% and 32.62% respectively year-on-year, up from + 6.32%, – 40.95% and + 56.09% over the same period of 20 years. Rongchuang ranked fourth with sales of 27.8 billion yuan.
In addition, the sales of real estate enterprises such as CNOOC real estate, Longguang group, China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui group, Shimao Group, Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Rongxin group, Xiangsheng group, excellence group, R & F real estate, Zhongnan real estate, Yuzhou group, Jinhui group, Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) and so on all decreased by more than 40% year-on-year in January.
“The monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises has increased negatively year-on-year for seven consecutive months, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 35% for three consecutive months.” Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) the research report said.
In this regard, Kerui Research Center believes that the real estate market had a bleak start in January 2022. On the one hand, many real estate enterprises slowed down the supply rhythm due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, which led to a sharp decline in transactions to a certain extent; More importantly, since the second half of last year, the downward pressure on the market has intensified, and the wait-and-see mood of home buyers has become more and more intense.
However, in the overall decline environment, some enterprises still achieved contrarian growth.
If compared with the same period in 2021, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Hengren land, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) and other real estate enterprises, the sales growth in January is positive year-on-year. If compared with the same period in 2020, more than half of the top 50 real estate enterprises such as country garden, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) and China Resources Land have achieved positive growth.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities Research Report believes that as the debt risk events of real estate enterprises are cleared, the enterprise credit continues to repair, and the fundamentals of the head real estate enterprises remain unchanged, the market resources will be more inclined to high-quality real estate enterprises with good operation and management ability in the future.
the era of “negative growth” of real estate is coming
From the current industry situation, it is a fact that the scale of real estate enterprises is shrinking or even negative growth.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2021, the scale of new house sales and development investment in the real estate industry increased by 1.9% and 4.4% respectively, but in the second half of the year, the investment in new construction, land acquisition and development fell to a low point, the new construction and land acquisition fell by 31% and 33% year-on-year, and the overall construction investment fell to the lowest level in four years year-on-year.
“At present, it has become a consensus that the industry is going down and ushering in an era of negative growth. After five years of high-level operation, the scale of commercial housing sales will be in the process of reducing the bottom.” Kerry thinks.
In 2022, the land acquisition strength of real estate enterprises is still weak. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, in January, the total land acquisition of the top 100 real estate enterprises was 83.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.6%. Among them, the total land acquisition of 50 representative real estate enterprises decreased by 88.8% year-on-year.
The downturn of the land market is certainly affected by factors such as the Spring Festival and centralized land supply. However, it also reflects that affected by the cold sales and financing environment, the funds of real estate enterprises are still under pressure, and their willingness and ability to obtain land are reduced.
In order to stimulate the vitality of the main bodies of the real estate market, many cities have introduced new policies to encourage housing consumption in the new year. On January 27, Anhui Province issued a document saying that it was the first province in China to explicitly encourage the reduction of down payment in the field of house purchase.
China Index Research Institute believes that in the short term, the improvement of the industry policy environment is expected to be further clarified, and the capital and policy sides will make efforts to release the potential of residents’ housing demand and promote a virtuous circle of the industry. Cities under greater pressure to adjust the property market will still strengthen credit support for the first and second houses.
At the same time, the primary task for small housing enterprises is that they will still not be able to pay back their debts in 2022.
