Events
Kerry released the top 100 sales list of Chinese real estate enterprises in January 2022.
In January, the monthly equity sales amount of the top 100 was – 42.2% year-on-year, and the supply and demand weakened under the high base. According to Kerui data, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 in January 2022 was – 40.7% year-on-year, and the equity sales amount was – 42.2% year-on-year. The reason for the large year-on-year decline between the single month equity caliber and the full caliber in January is: I) high base effect: the full caliber amount of the top 100 in January 21 reached 986.3 billion yuan, and the full caliber amount in 2022 changed by + 1.4% and – 11.5% respectively compared with 2020 and 2019. II) demand side: at the beginning of the 22nd year, the market weakened due to the change of the general environment in the second half of the 21st year, and the demand transformation slowed down due to the aggravation of buyers’ wait-and-see mood. III) supply side: due to the influence of centralized land supply in core cities, the rhythm of real estate enterprises’ goods promotion was disrupted, and the repeated covid-19 epidemic resulted in the weakening of supply in early 22.
The threshold of large-scale real estate enterprises decreased significantly in the downward cycle of the industry
In January, the threshold of full caliber top3 / 10 / 20 / 50 / 100 of the unit changed by – 273, – 85, – 52, – 27 and – 1.1 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year. The access threshold decreased, and the threshold of top3 changed the most; In January, the top 1-3 / 4-10 / 11-20 / 21-50 / 51-100 was – 40.2%, – 43.5%, – 39.7%, – 38.3%, – 42.8% year-on-year respectively, with changes of – 32.3, – 10.5, – 1.2, – 5.1 and + 6.0 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value. From the perspective of equity, the single month year-on-year figures of top1-3 / 4-10 / 11-20 / 21-50 / 51-100 were – 45.5%, – 44.9%, – 42.1%, – 37.6%, – 42.9% respectively, and the changes compared with the previous values were – 2.5, – 23.4, – 8.2, + 2.1, + 9.9 percentage points respectively. It can be seen that subject to the impact of the overall environment of the industry and the disruption of the promotion rhythm brought by the centralized supply of land in core cities, the sales of head real estate enterprises weakened at the beginning of the year.
Investment advice
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “real estate loan concentration management” and “two concentration of land supply” will restrict supply and demand in both directions. Since the second half of 2021, the market has continued to turn cold. The regulatory authorities have publicly stated for many times that they want to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies. In 2022, the restriction of supply and demand at both ends of the industry will aggravate the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. It is predicted that the differentiation at the land acquisition end may be transmitted to the sales end. If there is no substantive relaxation at the financing end, the real estate enterprises will be forced to “exchange price for volume”
Strengthen endogenous payment collection. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips
The real estate regulation policy is becoming stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital is greatly tightened.
