Industry status
Last week (from January 24 to January 28), the CSI 300 index was – 4.5%, the A-share auto sector was – 6.1%, underperforming the market by 1.6ppt, and the auto parts sector was – 5.2%, underperforming the market by 0.7ppt.
Commentary
Major new energy vehicle companies announced sales, and new energy performed strongly month on month in January. At present, the major new energy vehicle enterprises have begun to announce the sales volume in January. According to the data, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Nezha and zero month on month growth continue to maintain a small growth, with strong production and sales performance; Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng, jikrypton and gac-e’an decreased slightly month on month. The total passenger car sales of the above-mentioned car enterprises were nearly 166000, which was lower than that in the same period in history. On the industry side, although new energy is in the off-season of consumption in January, we expect the actual sales performance to be strong.
The passenger Federation expects the retail sales of passenger cars to reach 2.05 million in January. The Federation of passenger cars predicted that the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in January reached 2.05 million, corresponding to – 6.2% year-on-year and – 3% month on month, mainly due to: 1) the gradual strengthening of production and wholesale in the industry in recent months, driving the recovery of market supply; 2) The pre Festival promotion has been strengthened to boost the tide of returning home car purchase. We believe that the current market is more worried about the problem of terminal demand. The negative factors are mainly the narrowing of terminal discount and the rise of battery price. In addition, the rush loading and model price rise at the end of December also have an impact. However, looking ahead, we reiterate that the automobile demand is still in the bottom-up cycle. Considering the impact of the Spring Festival, the data in March deserve more attention, Inventory recovery and the release of demand for cash held for purchase are expected to support sales growth.
Tesla‘s performance in 2021 exceeded expectations and is expected to maintain high growth in 2022. Tesla announced its 2021 results on January 27, Beijing time, and its main financial indicators such as revenue and gross profit margin exceeded market expectations; The steady ramp up of production capacity and the large-scale support of new products drive the expected increase of delivery. The company’s guidance for 2022 and subsequent annual delivery is expected to continue to exceed 50% year-on-year. Looking ahead, the 4680 battery is progressing smoothly. The company is producing model y equipped with 4680 battery. The first batch of model y equipped with 4680 battery is planned to be delivered at the end of 1q22. In terms of automatic driving, the company expects to complete the development of FSD full automatic driving suite in 2022, and Tesla FSD beta program has accumulated more than 60000 active users.
Valuation and recommendations
Suggestions: 1) head independent vehicle and new power vehicle enterprises: Great Wall, Chang’an, Geely, Xiaopeng, ideal and Weilai; 2) Related targets of power exchange industry: Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) (not covered), Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) (not covered); 3) Electric intelligent components: Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Jiangsu Olive Sensors High-Tech Co.Ltd(300507) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) (uncovered), Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Nextel, etc; 4) Opportunities for large expansion of third-party procurement in motor supply chain: Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co.Ltd(600577) , Jee Technology Co.Ltd(688162) (not covered); 5) Air suspension track: Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (not covered); 6) Under the expectation of steady growth, the heavy truck industry chain: Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) A / h, Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) A / h, Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) , Aofu Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688021) (not covered).
Risk
Chip supply eased less than expected, and the epidemic repeatedly affected automobile production and sales.
