I wish you all good luck in the year of the tiger and make a lot of money in the year of the tiger. The index made a good start, which is expected. Shanghai strong, deep weak. The sectors of Huqiang focus on the infrastructure + I have been emphasizing in the past two months. Whether the index can continue to be strong or not needs to be observed. I think it should be a month’s long try after the Spring Festival, otherwise the market will be too bleak. Of course, the final choice depends on the market, I am not qualified to predict the rise and fall ability of the market. Only the market is qualified to predict. Remember that the market is smarter than us.
On the disk, infrastructure, banking and resources (oil) are the most proactive. Good start. The index is still in the downward trend, which needs to be changed. There is still a long way to go before returns to the upward trend. in the face of the pattern of big short positions, we should continue to make efforts. Continuous efforts, pay attention to the trend of leading stocks , and the trend of Maotai (consumption), Ningde (growth stocks), infrastructure + (cycle and traditional economy).
Infrastructure +. Historically, infrastructure and real estate investment show a “seesaw” effect, so as to provide support for economic growth. In January 2022, the real estate sales continued to be sluggish (the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in January was – 41.3% year-on-year), and the follow-up investment continued to be under pressure (the real estate investment in a single month in December 21 has decreased significantly by 13.9% year-on-year). The necessity of infrastructure development is relatively stronger. The infrastructure investment has improved in December 2021, and the month-on-month growth rate increased by 11.1pct to 3.7% month-on-month. From the perspective of the availability of funds, the issuance of special bonds in advance and the high balance of Financial deposits have fully guaranteed the capital construction funds at the beginning of 2022, and more than 480 billion yuan has been issued since January. In terms of the rebound range of demand, with reference to the steady growth after the epidemic in 2018 and 2020, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in a single month in the first half of 2022 may be close to double digits, and whether it can be sustained depends on exogenous variables such as real estate investment.
From the perspective of valuation level, the current sector valuation is still at the bottom of history, and a large number of central enterprises “break the net”. Even in the steady growth market in 2018, China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) and other traditional central enterprises have basically exceeded twice Pb. Therefore, the core of this round of sector valuation repair space height depends on whether the performance exceeds expectations.
conclusion: re emphasize the change of concept. The most suitable trading strategy this year is “band trading”. Leading stocks know the ups and downs.
