Years later, the market took a sharp turn for the worse, and fund managers obviously began the operation of position adjustment and stock exchange.
Approaching the Spring Festival, the expectation of “restlessness” of A-Shares failed. The falling market of 3000 stocks at every turn confused investors and confused them in the operation of increasing positions, diluting costs and reducing positions to avoid falling. The fund is no exception. Recently, there has been a large deviation between the estimated net value and the actual net value of many funds, and the current net value estimation data is based on the fund’s key positions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Therefore, it is not difficult to see that fund managers have started position adjustment and stock exchange in January.
Combing the public data, it is found that there are multiple commonalities in the funds with large valuation deviation, such as the replacement of fund managers in the first quarter, small overall scale and low shareholding concentration. The position adjustment path of some fund managers can also be seen from the 2021 fourth quarter report.
valuation of multiple funds is “inaccurate”
On January 28, the last transaction of the year of the ox ended at sunset. The Shanghai index fell nearly 1% and the Shenzhen index fell 0.53%. Less than 40% of the funds achieved positive returns. Interestingly, the valuation of some funds during the trading period is different from the net value after the closing, and even some data are quite different. For example, the valuation of China Merchants Anhong’s flexible allocation and mixed disclosure decreased by 0.7%, but the net value increased by 2.76%, with a deviation of 3.46%; In addition, there are many funds with negative valuations, such as the new blue chip hybrid of the south, the future value pioneer of Huachen, the selected income hybrid of SDIC UBS and the new blue ocean hybrid of Guoshou security consumption. However, the phenomenon of “valuation deviation” with positive returns after net value disclosure really surprised Jimin. On the contrary, there are also “empty joy” with positive valuation and negative net value of some funds, such as investment promotion industry leading hybrid A and Haiying 6-month holding period hybrid of Donghai securities.
Taking the Southern new blue chip hybrid as an example, nine of the fund’s top ten positions in the fourth quarter of 2021 fell on the 28th, of which Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) ranked fourth and Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) ranked fifth fell by 3.34% and 6.56% respectively, but the fund rose by 2.21% in a single day. It is worth mentioning that the fund manager Zhong Yun took over from Wu Jianyi only on January 5 this year, and the above-mentioned flexible allocation and mixing of China Merchants Anhong is the same: Wen Zhongyang took over from Zhang Hanyu as the fund manager of the fund on January 14 this year, and Wu Mo Village, the selected income of SDIC UBS, also joined on December 29, 2021.
It can be speculated that several fund managers have made adjustments in the shareholding structure with a high probability after taking office. For example, Wu Mocun expounded his views in the fourth quarter of information consumption of SDIC UBS, another fund managed by him, and hinted at his next operation direction: Based on the long-term tracking and research of the pig cycle, it is considered that the inflection point of industrial capacity has appeared from June to July of 21, The approximate rate of the inflection point of pig price is between q1-q2 in 22 years. The whole pig breeding industry is expected to usher in a new round of upward cycle of about 2 years after the inflection point. Therefore, pig breeding companies have been laid out in advance. Looking forward to 22 years, although the valuation of many sectors in the whole market is not as cheap as that at the end of 18, and it is difficult to find the opportunity to “lie and earn” by relying on the substantial increase of valuation, from the perspective of fundamental improvement, many main lines can be found in some fine-grained industries, especially the consumer sub industries with epidemic and policy damage in 21 years.
In addition, Qianhai United Yonglong, which focuses on the wind power sector, saw a sharp rise in several heavy position stocks on the 28th. Among them, the number one heavy position stocks Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) and Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) rose by the limit, Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) rose by more than 9%. If the valuation of the fund increased by 4% according to the position size at the end of the fourth quarter, but the net value increased by only 1.15% on the same day. Zhang Lei, the fund manager, said in the four seasons report that he was firmly optimistic about the long-term development of the wind power industry, Especially now that the land wind has just entered parity and the sea wind is about to enter parity, the development of wind power will accelerate in the future. According to the growth rate and valuation of wind power segments, “reasonably adjust the weight of segments and individual equity.”
What are the characteristics of funds with “valuation deviation”?
According to the reporter’s statistics, in addition to the recent replacement of some fund managers, the funds with large valuation deviation also have the characteristics of small scale and non concentration of positions. For example, the flexible allocation mix of Western Lide Jingrui of 524 million yuan and the leading mix of investment promotion industry of 338 million yuan have been among the top funds, and many of them are less than 100 million yuan. The overall scale of Qianhai United Yonglong mix of heavy warehouse wind power industry is even only 1 million yuan.
The securities law requires investors and persons acting in concert to hold more than 5% of their shares to raise their cards, and an announcement is required for more than 5% of their shares. Therefore, in terms of actual implementation, if a fund holds shares of a listed company, the market value will generally not exceed 10% of the fund’s net asset value and 5% of the stock market value; Generally, all funds of the same fund company hold no more than 10% of the shares of a listed company.
For example, for about 5 billion small cap stocks, if you want to allocate 10% of the fund position limit, the maximum size of the fund can only be no more than 2.5 billion yuan. If you want to layout 30 billion medium cap stocks, the maximum size of the fund needs to be controlled within 15 billion yuan.
The time of warehouse adjustment is another problem. Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) calculated the theoretical position adjustment time of funds of different sizes, and came to the conclusion: according to the estimation of 10% of the transaction volume of individual stocks, the position adjustment time of funds with a scale of about 2 billion is basically within one week. When the scale rises to 10 billion, the position adjustment time of individual stocks increases significantly, and the position adjustment time may take one month. In contrast, small funds and even Mini funds do not need so long to complete large-scale position adjustment and stock exchange in a relatively short period of time.
“Scale is the enemy of performance”, and the characteristics of small ship and good turn make the operation of public fund managers more comfortable in the volatile market. On the contrary, when the fund scale is too large, it is not only limited in operation, but also easy to exceed the ability of the fund manager, resulting in mediocre performance. In 2021, the market is more demanding for the professional ability of fund managers, which requires their ability to judge the situation and the courage to adjust investment strategies in time. Many small and medium-sized funds with limited scale can break through the performance list. The positions and shareholding structure of such funds may be adjusted frequently, so there is a large gap between valuation and net value.
In addition, low concentration is also one of the characteristics. The top ten heavy positions of many funds in the fourth quarter accounted for no more than 40% of the net value. For example, the top ten heavyweight stocks of Western Lide Jingrui flexible configuration mix accounted for 35.78%, China Merchants Anhong flexible configuration mix was only 24.07%, and the Southern new blue chip mix was only 20.98%. The lower proportion of heavy positions makes the calculation of fund valuation more variable, which is easy to lead to greater difference between and net value. In the structural market of market shock, reducing the position concentration and diversified balanced allocation can also better resist the risk of sector rotation.
